According to the results of the Central Bank (CBRT) participant survey, the year-end dollar exchange rate expectation decreased from 40,53 lira in the March survey period to 40,01 lira in the April survey period.
According to the data of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of the participants, while it was 44,19 percent in the March survey period, decreased to 44,16 percent in the April survey period. While the 12-month CPI expectation was 36,70 percent in the previous survey period, it decreased to 35,17 percent in this survey period, and the 24-month CPI expectation decreased to 22,67 percent and 22,05 percent, respectively, in the same survey periods.
In the survey period of April 2024, when the probability estimates of the participants for 12 months ahead are evaluated, the average CPI is expected to be between 36,36 - 30,00 percent with a 33,99 percent probability, and between 38,96 - 34,00 percent with a 37,99 percent probability. It is predicted that it will increase between 13,30 and 38,00 percent with a probability of 41,99 percent.
According to the evaluation made based on point estimates in the same survey period, 32,81 percent of the participants' expectations were in the range of 30,00 - 33,99 percent, 34,38 percent of the participants' expectations were in the range of 34,00 - 37,99 percent, 20,31 percent, It was observed that the expectations of 38,00 of them were in the range of 41,99 – XNUMX percent.
In the survey period of April 2024, when the probability estimates of the participants for 24 months are evaluated, the average CPI is expected to be between 28,70 and 16,00 percent with a probability of 20,99 percent and between 52,52 and 21,00 percent with a probability of 25,99 percent. It is predicted that it will increase between 9,08 and 26,00 percent with a probability of 30,99 percent.
According to the evaluation made based on point estimates in the same survey period, when CPI inflation expectations after 24 months are evaluated, the expectations of 33,93 percent of the participants are between 16,00 - 20,99 percent, and the expectations of 42,86 percent are between 21,00 - 25,99 percent. It is observed that the expectations of 12,50 percent are in the range of .26,00 to 30,99 – XNUMX percent.
While participants' expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate in the BIST Repo and Reverse-Repo Market was 45,82 percent in the previous survey period, it increased to 51,43 percent in this survey period. While the current month-end expectation of the CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate was 45,00 percent in the previous survey period, it increased to 50,00 percent in this survey period.
While the participants' current year-end exchange rate (US Dollar/TL) expectation was 40,53 TL in the previous survey period, it decreased to 40,01 TL in this survey period. While the 12-month exchange rate expectation was 42,79 TL in the previous survey period, it decreased to 42,47 TL in this survey period.
While the participants' GDP 2024 growth expectation was 3,3 percent in the previous survey period and this survey period, the GDP 2025 growth expectation was 3,8 percent in the previous survey period and 3,7 percent in this survey period.