With the announcement of the inflation rate, there was activity in the markets.
Commenting on the subject to Everyone Duysun, Prof. Dr. Yusuf Dinç said that inflation will peak in 2024.
"The new year is expected to be a period when inflation will peak due to the base effect," said Prof. Dr. Yusuf Dinç said, “This corresponds to the month of May. In the future, the base effect will work in reverse and a period in which inflation will decline will begin. In this way, I think the Central Bank target can be achieved. If the preferences are made in valuable TL, the exchange rate is expected to lose as much value as inflation. If TL will lose value as much as inflation, I calculate that the expectation will not come true. Even if the valuable TL policy is adopted, the Central Bank may keep its year-end forecast with minor deviations, that is, there may be a realization in the 36-40 band. Otherwise, it will stabilize above the decline in the summer months, and I evaluate this if there are no jumps in the exchange rate. "The energy side involves risks, but it will not have as much of an impact in this period as the exchange rate." he said.
“Türkiye WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY RETURNING TO PRE-2022 LEVELS”
Stating that there was a 2 trillion dollar contraction in world trade compared to last year with the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Dinç said, “The instability in the Red Sea will be decisive this year too. I evaluated this as a result of the unrest caused by Israel in the region and drew attention to this point before the Red Sea crisis broke out. This situation will negatively affect world trade, but it will create an effect in which a supply chain in Turkey will reinforce its role again. In other words, the world and Türkiye may differ in this sense. If the world's trade volume had not decreased, the figures would be 33-34 trillion dollars and would reach 2024-35 trillion dollars in 36. "If the crisis in the Red Sea and some important routes continues, it will be a year in which Turkey may have difficulty returning to pre-2022 levels." said.
“2024 WILL BE THE YEAR OF BALANCEMENT FOR Türkiye”
Stating that balancing will begin in Turkey in 2024, Prof. Dr. Yusuf Dinç said, “I think the global conjuncture will also help Turkey. We will see interest rate cuts late, both due to developments in the supply chain that may put Turkey at the forefront and because global central banks will not be able to continue increasing interest rates. All of these developments will be in favor of Turkey on a global scale. There may also be an upward movement in commodity prices. Raw material prices in sectors such as metal and oil may put a strain on Turkey, but since it will be a balancing year, there will be hot money inflow through portfolio investments. "Turkey can create a climate in which it can achieve its goals, but it can achieve this with 'precious TL' in order not to conflict with its preferred policy." he said.
