While the world left 2019 behind with trade wars between the USA and China, climate change, disasters and international tensions, it experienced the darkest days of history in 2020, when it entered with great hopes. The World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, as a 'pandemic' on March 11, 2020. The rapidly increasing number of cases and deaths worldwide, especially in Europe and the USA, caused people to withdraw to their homes and close the borders of countries. As the whole world is now starting to look for ways to combat COVID-19, a rapid transformation from daily life to global trade has been lit.
A NEW FRONT CAN OPEN IN TRADE WARS
Nail Olpak, Chairman of the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK), describes the transformation with the following words: “When evaluated economically, we see that the last year was one of the important developments in the global trade blocs. We are aware that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement covering 15 countries in Asia Pacific will open up a new front in the trade wars and we continue our work with this awareness. In addition, in 2020, we witnessed the acceleration of technological transition processes in every field while struggling with the adversities caused by COVID-19 on the one hand.
“SHARE OF E-COMMERCE INCREASED 80%
The name of this technological transformation was digitization. A rapid digitalization process has been entered into, from public transactions to the service sector and manufacturing industry. It is emphasized that the targeted digitalization and e-commerce rates in 2030 can be reached within a few years if they are at this pace. Only Turkey's e-commerce even sheds light on the rapid growth rates. Turkish Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan announced that e-commerce, which was 2019 percent in general trade in the first 6 months of 8,4, rose to 2020 percent in the first six months of 14,2. With the widespread use of home and remote working models, rapid growth in e-commerce seems to continue.
"DIGITALIZATION HAS BECOME MEMBURIA"
"Turkey should we continue our digitization work in order to move it at the top of global supply chains, both public and private sector," said UTIKAD Chairman Emre Eldener, said it would be the technology of the issues to be highlighted again the very next process says: "All the logistics sector, pandemic they took advantage of their previously invested technological infrastructures while managing their business processes during the crisis it created. We are able to transparently track each container, air cargo and trucks from satellite systems to the finest detail. This is of great importance to our customers as well as to us. We have to adapt our business models to technology. Companies that fail to do this will face the danger of losing their markets. ”Underlining that digitalization has become mandatory in all areas of life with the COVID-19 epidemic, Eldener says,“ The pandemic has shown us that the ways of doing business around the world are open to constant change ”.
CHINA Turkey rather PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS
UTIKAD Chairman Eldener emphasizes the need to read the change in global trade well and draws attention to the following points: “The epidemic that started in China brought the supply shortage in global trade. 2021's, Turkey will add value to the private sector in spots began to appear on the horizon. Some countries, including Turkey, to be dependent on raw materials or products from China, they have to realize that they pose a risk to crisis situations. For this reason, most of the suppliers around the world have gone to diversify the markets from which they buy products or services. In Pandemic process, some of the global companies that can not provide enough services and procurement from China, led the purchasing operations in Turkey. I do not see this situation as a temporary method applied with pandemic shock. Probably, the trend toward the purchase of Turkey, in 2021 and beyond will continue to increase. "
RELIABLE FIRMS WILL STAY
DEİK President Nail Olpak: “We are in a brand new era in terms of globalization. With COVID-19, the whole world has grasped the problems caused by dependence on a single supplier. The availability and accessibility of products and services, which we previously described as distant, near, expensive and cheap, gained importance in the new era. To explain in another way, 'trust' will be at the top of the determining concepts of the coming period. The winners of this period; There will be those who survive without making any distinction on the basis of country, company or sector, without breaking the supply chain, and those who can give their interlocutors a sense of trust much better. " says.
EXPORT INCREASED BY AMOUNT IN 2020
Turkey's export momentum in the second half of the year catches, President confirms Eldeneri. Turkey Exporters Assembly (TIM), according to the January-November period, compared to the same period last year, on the basis of the amount of the country's exports, increased by 6,1 percent and amounted to 155 million tons. In the same period exports, worth some 6,3 billion after declining 169,5 percent in the third quarter, though its exports increase year Turkey has managed to become one of the four countries. Saying, “We are overcoming the obstacle of uncertainty in global trade with our reliable supplier identity,” TİM President İsmail Gülle said, “We anticipate that our exports, which reached 4 million tons in 2019 on a quantity basis, will reach 146 million tons in 2023. With our developing exports, naturally, the need for logistics also increases ”.
REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP
Reminding that global trade contracted by 2020 percent in the first nine months of 9,4, TİM President Gülle stated that the exports of many countries faced a double digit contraction in this period and said: “In the first nine months of the year, Russia's exports were 23 percent, France's exports were 19 percent. 18, India's exports shrank by 2020 percent. In 8, the annual contraction in global trade is thought to be around 30 percent. Moreover, in November, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which is the largest free trade agreement in the world, was signed. As a result of the signatures in Asia Pacific (15 percent of global GDP, 2,1 countries and XNUMX billion population), the message was given to the whole world that 'we are enough'. Within the framework of our win-win business model, we must both develop our existing cooperation agreements and prepare for new agreements urgently. "
7,2% GROWTH EXPECTATIONS IN GLOBAL GOODS TRADE
In 2020, there was a serious decrease in investments in addition to the global commodity trade. In the report of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, it was pointed out that the foreign investor activity of the countries decreased significantly in 2020, “The share of foreign direct investment (FDI), which was 2019 trillion dollars in 1,54, decreased by approximately 40 percent. In 2020, the share of FDI worldwide will fall below $ 1 trillion ”. It is stated that the decrease in investments is an indicator that the recovery in the global economy will not be soon. According to the United Nations, it is necessary to wait until 2019 at the earliest for the global economy to reach 2022 levels. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently revised its growth forecast for the 2021 world economy to 5,2 percent. The World Trade Organization (WTO), on the other hand, announced that in its projections for 2021, it expects 7,2 percent growth in quantity in global commodity trade. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that composite leading indicators show that recovery continues in the face of the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 in most major economies such as the USA, China, Germany and France, but the rate of change in recovery varies significantly between countries.
A QUANTITY OF RECOVERY MAY BE IN 2021
YASED President Ayşem Sargın: “Considering that mass vaccination practices have started in 2021 for the first time, we want to become more visible. There may be some recovery this year. In the report prepared by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); Emphasis is placed on a 2020 percent decrease for the period covering the years 2021 and 40. There is a great decline of 49 percent in investments in the world for now. But with the UNCTAD report predicting a total drop of 40 percent for two years, there will be some recovery in 2021. 2021 will actually be our preparation period for the economy that we hope to recover in 2022. We will take those big transformations and steps to renew ourselves in 2021. Depending on this, we think that there will be some investments. We foresee that it will not be a tough year until 2020. Turkey's proximity to Europe and the absence of a Customs Union Agreement with the European advantage. Shifts in the supply chain, the country's strong industrial infrastructure and qualified workforce we consider, it actually will occur at the very beginning of a period of a very important opportunity for Turkey. Because there are not many countries around us with strong and qualified workforce in the industry as we do. " he states.
WE SHOULD CONSULT ON NEW MARKETS
UTIKAD Chairman of the Board, Emre Eldener: “Another issue that we need to focus on in 2021 should be new markets. International trade activities can change in a short time depending on instant developments. Therefore, we must always be prepared for possible crises. Turkey, Europe and the East Asian market if it focused mainly on foreign trade activities, in particular taking into account the increased demand from Africa and the Middle East, we must increase our investments and operations in these regions. Especially; We see great potential in air transport and maritime transport services in Tunisia, West Africa and South Africa. " says.
TURKEY'S 2021 GROWTH FORECAST
agency reports describing the global economy, institutions and organizations for their foresight in 2021 Turkey announced one after another. US-based investment bank JP Morgan, to Turkey in 2021 to an estimated 3,6 percent growth predicted in December 2020 drew to 3 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its 2021 growth forecast from 3,9 percent to 2,9 percent. World Bank 2020 growth forecast to 3 percent to 0,5 percent announced that Turkey download. On the other hand, the bank's 2020 inflation forecast for Turkey 11 percent, while the inflation forecast to 2021 percent in 9 and to decline to 2022 per cent recorded in 8,5. Turkey agenda in the world and even determine the way of living life Covidien-19 pandemic, especially it reveals the importance of certain sectors, including health stiff. While the logistics sector's stakeholders remained at the head of the distribution business when the world was withdrawn to their homes, it succeeded in delivering the products needed in every corner of the world to the end buyers, especially the medical equipment and medicine needs.
LOSS IN TRANSPORTATION LARGE
Although transportation activities came to the fore as a vital sector during the pandemic period, it was one of the sectors most affected by the epidemic with the closing of the borders. With the deterioration of the export-import balance, it caused the lack of containers and vehicles in transportation, especially by sea. Air transport suffered the biggest loss. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicted that the loss of the global airline industry in 2020 will reach $ 118,5 billion, while the total loss of revenue will exceed half a trillion dollars. IATA underlined that due to the COVID-19 outbreak, airline companies' passenger revenues are expected to decline to $ 2020 billion in 55, a 314 percent decline compared to last year. The International Road Transport Association (IRU) announced that the road freight transport industry's turnover loss expectation for 2020 rose from $ 543 billion to $ 679 billion.
VACCINES WILL BE CARRIED BY AIR
Although airline transport has lost blood during this process, it has also played a very important savior role against COVID-19. Stakeholders of airline transport, which has been growing medical supplies and medicines all over the world since early 2020, have been safely distributing COVID-2020 vaccines since December 19. Air freight rates, which increased due to the pandemic, increased a little more with the additional demand due to vaccine transportation. The fact that vaccine shipments are undisputedly in priority transport status has led to a little more increase in air cargo costs. The transportation of COVID-19 vaccines should be carried out mainly by air due to the high cost of goods and being included in the world's emergency action plans. Transportation of masks, protective clothing and hygiene products, which increased in 2020, will continue to be the life water for the logistics sector in 2021. Turkey in the first 11 months of Covidien's 19-product exports, showed a 219 percent increase compared to the same period of the previous year.
EMPTY CONTAINER STILL CONTINUES
Depending on the epidemic, with the decrease in China's exports in the first months of 2020, flight cancellations on container lines also started. Regular line transportation witnessed an irregular transportation in 2020. Container operators faced high demurrage charges due to lack of containers. The general forecast of the industry is that the equipment problems will continue until March 2021 after the Chinese New Year (the second week of February). For this process, UTIKAD President Emre Eldener recommends that companies' make the loading plans well, convey their equipment needs to the logistics companies at least 1-2 weeks before the specified loading dates, if possible, plan the shipments over time instead of single lot volume shipments.
VOLUME WILL GROW IN 2021
During the period when countries closed their borders, demand for rail freight transportation increased due to its contactless transportation feature. Railway trade with neighboring countries, especially Turkey's important role. Also in November 2019 as an interruption of the shield using the Marmaray railway from China after reaching 18 days in Prague, made in 2020, it was announced that the more time the railway from Turkey to Europe and China 10 blocks. In December 2020 the export of the first train departing from Turkey bee journey lasting 12 days was reported to have reached China. In the statement made by the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure; Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway Line, the cargo transportation time between China and Turkey 1 month 12 days in stated that, Marmaray in that it even integrated emphasized that fell to 18 days of travel time between the Far East and Western Europe. These developments show that the railway will play a more important role than ever before in order to effectively continue exports to the Middle East, Caucasus, South East Europe and Central Europe. The trend and supply to rail and intermodal modes are expected to increase by the industry in 2021 and beyond.
TAIL CONTINUES IN EUROPEAN TRANSPORT
apart from the role played in intermodal transport Turkey's foreign trade in the 38 percent share of the road transport of the difficulties experienced by the pandemic period, the number of cases of the winter months it starts to close the country due to rise continued to rise ediyor.türk shippers is currently the biggest problem is living in European transport. Transport data shed light on the increase in export shipments to Europe compared to the previous year. After the decrease in the March-May period, export shipments to Europe increased on a monthly basis in June compared to the previous year. In November, the average weekly passage at Kapıkule and Hamzabeyli gates exceeded 11 thousand. This number was around 10 thousand last year. Although the daily passing average has reached from 900 to one thousand 100 units, trucks have to wait for days due to the inability of the gate to respond to the crowd on the Bulgarian side. That 90 percent of transport exports to western Europe Bulgaria is doing with black doors in transition, Turkey is affecting the competitiveness of exports. On the other hand, the imbalance between import and export is reflected in export freight as an extra cost. A decision that could affect the Turkish carrier and exporter in 2021 could come from Austria. Because, within the framework of the law proposal submitted by the Austrian Green Party to the parliament, it is envisaged that the discount and VAT discount applied to the diesel fuel purchases of the Turkish carrier from Austria will be terminated by 2021.
UTIKAD Board Member and Head of the Highway Working Group Ayşem Ulusoy says, "Austrian authorities, aiming to reduce carbon emissions by making it difficult for vehicles that carry international freight transportation to pass through Austria, seem to find the solution to eliminate the advantages provided to companies in road transport." Expressing that they are following the process closely, Ayşem Ulusoy; “If this happens, hard days will await our member companies. However, the information we have received is that this proposal was submitted to the government by the opposition, so there is no final decision yet. We are following the process closely together with our Austrian colleagues and solution partners. ”Quota and visa problems in international road transport, renewal of the Customs Union Agreement, focusing on the problems of transit transportation, as areas that require legislative changes, seem to keep their agenda in 2021.
ROAD TRANSPORT WILL BE MORE EFFECTIVE IN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD
UND President Çetin Nuhoğlu says that road transportation will be more effective in trade between west and east in the coming period. Nuhoğlu to begin to take a greater share of the foreign trade of Turkey Platter foreign One of the threats in front of the car industry based. Expressing that in October, the transportation of vehicles with foreign license plates increased considerably and this situation started to put a great pressure on Turkish transporters, Nuhoğlu said, “The logistics industry is now a big industry and countries want to gain competitive advantage in all other areas by strengthening this sector. In October, while foreign license plate vehicles increased their shipments through western land gates by 12 percent, Turkish vehicles were limited to 8 percent. At the eastern gates, the number of transports of Turkish vehicles decreased by 18 percent, while the transportation of foreign license plates increased by 2 percent. It is striking that there are significant reductions in Ro-Ro exits at our southern gates. It is necessary to analyze this information well. The alternative to a new quest in Turkey with the pandemic began manufacturing and supply chain began to come forward. If we do not increase the logistics competitiveness of our country, we will miss a great opportunity that has come to our feet. We have to reverse this table as soon as possible ”.
WE WILL WAIT 2019 FOR 2024 OUTCOMES
TEDAR Chairman of the Board Tuğrul Günal: “We had to change our business processes and models with the pandemic. Together with all the negativities experienced, we realized how important digitalization is. We need to increase the number of digitalization moves both in business processes with the state and in companies. It is known that companies that are champions in digitization have increased their turnover by 8 percent and reduced their costs by 6 percent. In 2020, with the impact of the pandemic, a 7-8 percent contraction occurred in the world economy. I think it is necessary to wait not 2019, but 2021, even 2024 to catch the 2025 outcomes. If we are to sample through automotive, the locomotive of the Turkish industry, it talks about 2019 or even 2026 for this sector to catch the output of 2028. If we look at the impact of the pandemic Turkey in particular'm not pessimistic. In spite of all the negativity, the logistics position of Turkey, after a pandemic with the constantly increasing labor and industrial infrastructure that I think that one of the luckiest countries. We see that European industrialists in particular are looking for new suppliers. The key point for us here is that we follow sustainable policies that do not vary much in the foreign trade arena. This policy is also channeled into business processes as state policy, European investors, potential investment by any country in the Far East, it will transfer to Turkey. " he states. (UTIKAD)