Column by Journalist Writer Atilla Sağım…
Last weekend, survey companies published the surveys they conducted in provinces and districts on social media. When I see the differences between the surveys they conducted in January-February and March, I would like to say once again how important the scientific nature of this work is.
When we look at Bursa, certain survey companies showed the CHP candidate first in January-February, but in the first half of March, they shared the survey results showing the People's Alliance candidate first, but they did not explain the reason for this change.
However, when the metropolitan race started, there was an average difference of five points between Alinur Aktaş and Mustafa Bozbey. According to the surveys conducted by President Erdoğan, the candidates also conducted regular surveys and the results were almost the same there as well. While Bozbey was ahead by seven points in a poll company, now the same poll firm shows Alinur Aktaş ahead by three points.
In fact, since the election race officially started, the first and second places have not changed at all until the last five days. The five points in between sometimes decreased and sometimes increased, but the average did not change, what changed was the third and fourth.
The rankings of AK Party, CHP, YRP, İYİ Party, Victory Party and Felicity Party in Bursa in the surveys announced in the last week and the number of undecided voters seem to be quite low in Bursa. This ranking is based on the results of five independent survey companies.
In the last five days, the voters will choose the mayors who will serve them for five years. The decision of who is elected and who is not will belong to the real owners of Bursa.
The inconsistency in the quarterly work of polling companies will not negatively affect any candidate or voter. After all, no one's vote is for granted. The character of the voters here is clear, the voters do not easily change the staff that will govern them, they are looking for a good alternative to replace them. Perhaps the secret of the AK Party's victory for 21 years is that the AK Party is the one that does the best social engineering here in politics.
If we look at the latest situation in the districts of Bursa, there are problems in the CHP in Mudanya, the candidate who is nominated instead of the current CHP mayor is almost torpedoed to make him lose. The candidate who will change the balance in Mudanya is the İYİ Party candidate, but we can say that the candidate closest to winning is the AK Party candidate.
In Mustafakemalpaşa, we can say that the gap between the People's Alliance candidate and the CHP candidate has closed. The election in the district is on a knife edge. It has been leaked to the press that CHP has started to experience the candidate and provincial organization problems it experienced in 2019 again in the last fifteen days. It is known that the votes in Nilüfer, which CHP sees as a guarantee, have decreased, and it seems that the 2019 election results will not happen in Nilüfer this time.
AK Party is in a very comfortable position in Yıldırım, Osmangazi, İnegöl, Gürsu, Keles, Harmancık, Orhaneli, Büyükorhan, Yenişehir, Karacabey and Gemlik. Full field press continues for Orhangazi, Mudanya, Nilüfer, Mustafakemalpaşa, Kestel, İznik.
İYİ Party prepared for ambitious elections in Orhaneli and Yenişehir, but the agenda setting before the May 2023 elections did not happen in this election, and YRP continues to work against the AK Party disgruntled.
The results that will emerge on the evening of March 31st are more or less clear, but let's say there will be no winners or losers, and the only winner will be Bursa.
According to the average of five independent surveys across Türkiye;
Istanbul ~ CHP
Ankara ~ CHP
Izmir ~ CHP
Bursa ~ AK Party
Antalya ~ AK Party
Konya ~ AK Party
Adana ~ CHP
Şanlıurfa ~ YRP
Gaziantep ~ AK Party
Kocaeli ~ AK Party
Mersin ~ CHP
Diyarbakir ~ DEM
Hatay ~ AK Party
Manisa ~ MHP
Kayseri ~ AK Party
