24 on February 2022 Rusya ve Ukrayna Two years have passed since the war that started between Apart from those who lost their lives at the front, millions of civilians had to migrate. The war had serious costs for both countries. The West has come to a serious crossroads regarding Ukraine, which it has supported since the first day of the war. The possibility of Trump winning the US elections seems likely to fundamentally change the course of the war. History of the conflicts that occurred in the 2-year period and possible scenarios that may occur after this period Foreign Policy Expert Dr. Barış Adıbelli, analyzed it for Everyone Duysun.
UKRAINE COULD NOT MATCH RUSSIA'S MILITARY POWER
Stating that Turkey has undertaken a mediation mission since the day the conflicts began and has maintained relations between the two countries at a certain level, Dr. Barış Adıbelli, “Turkey We made a serious effort in the Istanbul talks to bring the two countries to the table within the framework of the mediation mission. A serious success was achieved in the Istanbul talks, as we learned the details later, but due to the intervention of the West, İstanbul The talks ended in failure. The USA and the West under its control saw the war as an opportunity and wanted to deal a serious blow to Russia's power, but this was not a realistic approach. This is because Ukraine does not have a serious army force.
The West provided serious material and military-technical support to Ukraine, but ukrainian army Since it was a makeshift army consisting of mercenaries and recruited soldiers, it did not have the chance to respond to Russia in the field. Rusya "He never used his entire military presence in the field." said.
RUSSIA COULD NOT DISPLAY ITS LATEST GENERATION WEAPONS ON THE FRONT
Throughout the conflict, Ukraine was affected by both the West and Russia's war junkyardDr. underlined that he returned to the Barış Adıbelli said, “Russia did not use the latest generation military weapons technology in the Ukrainian field throughout the conflicts. He brought to the field his military inventory, a significant portion of which remained from World War II. This was also true for Europe. As part of the aid coming from Europe, a significant amount of weapons from old Soviet technology were sent. Russia did not demonstrate its most advanced vehicles in terms of both weapons and military personnel on the field, but the same situation Syria Does not apply to . We see that Russia, which has a military presence in Syria, uses state-of-the-art weapons more intensively in this area. We can say that the reason why Russia made this choice was to sit at the diplomacy table and solve the problem at a low cost. Its main purpose is to make both Ukraine and the West accept that Crimea is Russian territory and to NATO was to prevent its membership.” he said.
UKRAINE'S COUNTER ATTACK FAILS TO ACHIEVE CONCLUSION
Explaining the reasons why Ukraine's counter-offensive, which has been constantly voiced since last year, failed to achieve results, Dr. Barış Adıbelli said, “In order to launch a counter-attack, it must dominate the air, sea and land. Retired US generals also emphasized this, especially when the attack was being discussed. ABDThere were also important names who opposed the counter-attack and saw it as suicide. At this point, Russia has launched a counter-attack. "The Ukrainian army began to decline." said.
UKRAINE IS ALSO IN A DIFFICULT SITUATION POLITICALLY
Emphasizing that Ukraine is in trouble not only militarily but also politically, Barış Adıbelli, "Zelensky he's tired now. There were elections in Ukraine this year, but they were canceled. This situation brought Zelensky's legitimacy into question among the opposition in Ukraine.
The United States is no longer as enthusiastic about supporting Ukraine as it used to be. Question marks have increased in Congress regarding Ukraine. If the war in Israel had not been in question, aid might not have passed through Congress. Biden could barely pass the aid package to Ukraine and Israel through Congress. F-16 promises for Ukraine have not been kept yet. "In addition to the West's reluctance to provide aid, there is also weariness among Ukrainians fighting on the ground." he said.
THE WEST'S ECONOMIC EMBARGO AGAINST RUSSIA FAILS TO ACHIEVE ITS PURPOSE
Dr. stated that the belief that the embargo imposed by the West at the beginning of the conflict would collapse Russia disappeared as time went by and it was seen that Russia was not shaken economically. Barış Adıbelli used the following statements:
“Russia reached a figure of 17.1 billion dollars in oil export revenues announced in August. Natural gas ve from oil The revenues obtained also refuted the claims that Russia would collapse economically. Russia's economic relations with China, India and Iran continue unabated. Europe imposed an embargo on this issue, but the loser here was not Russia, but Europe and Europe's industrial facilities.”
