Director of Üsküdar University Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Political Science and International Relations (English) and Postcolonial Studies Application and Research Center (PAMER). Lecturer Member Fehmi Ağca evaluated the results of the 31 March 2024 Local Government General Election.
RESPONDENT GOVERNMENT VOTERS WHO DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTIONS…
Noting that the election participation rate was around 8 percent lower than other elections, Dr. Lecturer Member Fehmi Ağca said, “It is seen as a strong possibility that the majority of those who did not participate in the elections are voters who are resentful of the ruling party. It is considered that this situation affected the election results. In the past 2-3 years, the living conditions of retired citizens in particular have been significantly negatively affected. "It can be said that the ruling party's failure to take fair and effective measures on this issue in a timely manner affected the election results." said.
WHO DID DEM AND GOOD PARTY VOTERS VOTE FOR?
Dr. stated that the most important factor affecting the election results was the support of the DEM Party and İYİ Party voters for the Republican People's Party. Lecturer Member Fehmi Ağca said, “Compared to the parliamentary elections in May 2023, the DEM Party's vote decreased from 9 percent to 5.6 percent in these elections. From here, around 4.6 percent of the votes went directly to CHP. İYİ Party's vote rate, which was 9.9 percent, decreased to 3.7 percent. Approximately 6,2 votes from this party went to CHP. It seems that a total of 10.8 percent of the votes from these two parties shifted to CHP.” he evaluated.
BETWEEN WHICH PARTIES DID THE VOTES SHIFT?
Reminding that CHP's vote in May 2023 is 25,80 percent, Dr. Lecturer Member Fehmi Ağca said, “With the votes coming from these two parties, it already reaches around 36,6 percent of the votes. The remaining 1 percent increase in votes can be considered to be due to reasons such as the CHP being more successful in candidate selection and its effective use of economic problems in election campaigns. The real vote of the main opposition party appears to be around 37.74 percent – 10.8 = 27 percent. This vote is close to CHP's traditional vote. CHP has managed to make a very effective and successful electoral alliance, secretly or openly, with DEM and İYİ Party. On the other hand, the increase in the votes of the Re-Welfare Party from 2.9 percent to 6,2 percent shows that it gained around 3,4 percent of the votes from the AK Party. "The decrease from 2023 percent of the votes received by the AK Party in the May 36.30 parliamentary elections to 2024 percent in the 35.5 local elections can be considered an expected result under these conditions." He analyzed it as follows.
GOVERNMENT FATIGUE AFFECTS THE RESULTS…
Dr. Lecturer Member Fehmi Ağca pointed out that if the AK Party could determine a correct election campaign and strategy before the elections, the result could be different and completed his evaluations as follows:
“The lack of a realistic public survey about the voting potential of the Re-Welfare Party prevented entering into an electoral alliance with this party. As a result, it is considered that the AK Party's fatigue in 22 years of power, mistakes made in candidate selection and failure to determine the election strategy correctly, and most importantly, the AK Party's inability to mobilize its own voters and not be effective in taking them to the ballot box, were effective in the election results. These election results should be seen as a serious warning to the AK Party from its own voters. With the correct and successful policies it will implement until 2028, the AK Party can once again receive the support of the majority of voters, as it did in the past. It is evaluated that the performance of CHP, which won the majority of mayoralties, in the next 4 years will play an important role in the formation of voter trends.”
