If US President Donald Trump launches a military attack against Iran, American military targets in the Middle East will face serious danger, even if the ability of hostile forces in the region to directly attack the US homeland is limited.
Pentagon's Assessments of Possible Scenarios
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Wednesday that officials have presented President Trump with a range of possible options on Iran, focusing on the security of American forces. “We always maintain maximum force protection in the region,” Hegseth said.
Despite the recent withdrawal of U.S. troops and personnel from the region, there are currently about 40.000 active-duty military and Department of Defense civilians stationed in the Middle East, according to the Pentagon. Last week, Hegseth said, all military dependents in the region were allowed to “voluntarily leave” in response to potential threats.
The region contains several major U.S. military installations, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar (the regional headquarters of U.S. Central Command) and several active bases in Kuwait, which borders Iran. US intelligence agencies are examining Iran's plans to attack US bases in the Middle East if it joins the US military operation against Israel, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.
Attack History and Threat Perception of Iranian-Backed Proxy Groups
Since Israel's war in Gaza began in the fall of 2023, many U.S. positions in Iraq and Syria have been attacked with drones and other weapons by Iranian-backed proxy groups in the region. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, more than 2023 attacks occurred between October 2024 and November 180, at times resulting in injuries to U.S. service members.
The U.S. military has sometimes struggled to defend against attacks, especially those using relatively cheap weapons that American forces can only block with much more expensive drones or air defense missiles. An attack by Iran, which has a large number of drones and ballistic missiles, would be far more threatening than previous attacks by smaller adversaries.
“I have no assurance that we have the capacity to protect against a swarm of small, light, slow-moving drones,” said Richard Blumenthal, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Right now, if we were to engage in a conflict with Iran, that would put U.S. personnel there at risk.”
US Military Positioning in the Region and Trump's Statements
To counter such threats, Navy officials last week diverted two destroyers to the eastern Mediterranean for possible force protection duties. Other naval assets are on standby and the US is also sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region. Hegseth declined to provide details in his testimony on Wednesday on how exactly the United States would protect its troops if Iran were to engage in direct attacks on American assets.
The United States began directly supporting Israel's defense by helping intercept Iranian missiles aimed at Tel Aviv and other cities after the two hostile countries began exchanging missile attacks last week.
President Trump was asked by reporters Wednesday morning whether he had made a decision about getting more involved in the region. “Are we going to attack Iran’s nuclear component? I may not. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump replied. “I can tell you, Iran has a lot of problems, and they want to negotiate.”
