New data from NASA has revealed a dramatic increase in the intensity of weather events such as droughts and floods over the past five years.
The study shows that such extreme events are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe, with last year's numbers reaching double the 2003-2020 average.
The increase was not predicted to be this steep: They say climate change is the most likely cause of the apparent trend, although the intensity of extremes appears to have risen even faster than global temperatures.
The data has not yet been peer-reviewed, and researchers say it will take 10 years or more to qualify as a definitive trend.
Dr. Matthew Rodell of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Hydrological Sciences Laboratory also called for caution with the latest data, but admitted he too was concerned about a trend in catastrophic events accelerating significantly. “It’s absolutely frightening,” he said.
The paper noted that the intensity of extremes is more strongly correlated with global average temperature than with El Niño, influential ocean currents or other climate indicators, suggesting that continued warming of the planet will lead to more frequent, more severe, longer and/or larger droughts and floods.
Prof Richard Betts, head of climate change impacts at the Met Office and the University of Exeter, said of the NASA report: “This is a stark reminder that a warmer planet means more severe floods and droughts. This has long been predicted, but is now being seen in reality.
“The world is not ready for the changes in heavy rainfall and drought that are happening now. People around the world have built their lifestyles around the weather patterns that they and their ancestors were accustomed to, leaving them vulnerable to more frequent and severe extremes that are beyond past experience. In addition to urgently scaling up efforts to reduce emissions to stop global warming, we need to adapt to live better with the changes that are already happening.”
Britain's Royal Meteorological Society has also warned that such sudden shifts from one extreme to the other cause more damage than individual events, affecting agriculture, infrastructure, biodiversity and human health.
