According to claims in the US press, Iranian officials did not expect the Israeli attack to take place so early. It was even claimed that the commander of the Revolutionary Guard's Air and Space Unit, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, was killed in the attack on a military base in Tehran where he was meeting with his senior military personnel. This situation raised important questions about Iran's intelligence and defense weaknesses.
Misconception Before Nuclear Talks
As the tensions continue with Iran launching retaliatory attacks following Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, news reports in the US press indicate that Iran has made a major “miscalculation.” According to the New York Times (NYT) newspaper’s report titled “Officials say Iran’s miscalculation increases the toll of Israel’s attacks,” Iran’s top leaders thought that Israel’s attack would not take place before the nuclear talks between the US and Iran scheduled to take place on Sunday.
The report, based on the statements of six Iranian officials and two members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps who provided information on the subject, stated that Iran's top leaders expected Israel's attack to take place more than a week later, even if the nuclear talks failed. However, the report included the assessment that "they made a huge miscalculation."
They Thought It Was “Israeli Propaganda”
According to information provided by officials close to the Iranian government, Iranian leaders did not foresee an attack by Israel when the new round of talks was expected to begin this Sunday in the mediator country Oman. They dismissed news and reports suggesting that Israel might attack as “Israeli propaganda.” According to Iranian officials, these reports and reports were intended to pressure Iran into making concessions regarding its nuclear program. It was alleged that previously planned security measures were ignored due to this misconception.
Death of Commanders and Air Defense Weakness
According to information shared by sources who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, on Friday night when Israel launched its attack, Iran’s top military commanders were not in safe houses, but in their own homes. What is even more striking is the claim that the Revolutionary Guard’s Air and Space Unit Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh and his senior staff, who lost their lives in the Israeli attacks, ignored instructions not to gather in one place. It has been claimed that these figures were killed in an Israeli attack on a military base in the capital Tehran while they were holding an emergency war meeting.
In private text messages seen by the NYT, some officials can be seen angrily asking, “Where are our air defenses?” Another official questioned the weaknesses in the system, asking, “How can Israel attack anything it wants and kill our top commanders, and we can’t stop it?” The officials also questioned the intelligence and defense lapses that led Iran to fail to foresee the imminent attack and the extent of the damage it would cause.
“The Israeli attack completely caught the leadership off guard, especially the killing of senior military figures and nuclear scientists… It also exposed our lack of proper air defense and their ability to bomb our critical areas and military sites without any resistance,” said Hamid Hosseini, a member of the Energy Committee of the Ministry of Commerce, in a telephone interview from the capital Tehran.
Israel's Internal Operations and Protest Concerns
Hosseini, who is said to be close to the Iranian government, said that Israel’s apparent infiltration of Iran’s security and military apparatus also shocked officials. According to Israel’s statement, Israel had conducted “operations” inside Iran targeting military and nuclear targets and activated an explosive drone base they had set up in the country prior to the attacks. These allegations raise the issue of possible weaknesses in Iran’s internal security structure and Israel’s intelligence capabilities.
The report also shared details about the National Security Council meeting held in Iran yesterday morning. According to the allegations, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that he wanted revenge at the meeting but did not want to act hastily. There were also differences of opinion at the meeting about how and when Iran would retaliate. An official who spoke to the newspaper stated that the meeting also discussed the possibility of protests if Israel attacked Iran's infrastructure or water and energy plants. This situation shows that the Iranian administration is also concerned about its internal balances and the public's reaction.
This information that has emerged reveals that the tension in the Middle East is not just a military conflict, but is also related to deep intelligence wars, political calculations and internal dynamics.
