Military aircraft are flying high, according to new research from consultancy Oliver Wyman maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) The costs will increase significantly worldwide in the coming years. The main reason for this increase is that fleets consist of increasingly advanced and technologically complex aircraft.
The report by analysts Doug Berenson, Livia Hayes and Ian Ferguson predicts that the global military aircraft MRO market will reach approximately To 97 billion dollars and will maintain this level over the previous six years. However, this situation is expected to change in the next decade. With MRO costs increasing at an annual rate of approximately 1,4%, militaries are expected to implement MRO by 2035. More than $111 billion is expected to spend.
Provided to Defense News by Oliver Wyman, “The Army’s Rising Cost for Cutting-Edge Technology: Why Global Air Forces Will Spend More on Fleet MROs” The report, titled “How Much Cost Has Changed?”, details the key drivers behind this cost increase.
The Role of the F-35 and Other Advanced Aircraft
The report notes that the key factor driving these high MRO costs is F-35 Joint Strike Fighter It was emphasized that the number of advanced platforms such as the . Such jets offer much more advanced capabilities than older jets, such as stealth. However, their complex software, advanced propulsion systems, exotic materials and other advanced technologies require more service hours to maintain and, naturally, higher operating costs.
According to Lockheed Martin data, worldwide More than 1.170 F-35s has been delivered. The U.S. Air Force currently operates about 471 F-35As and plans to eventually purchase 1.763 of the jets. The report notes that F-310s make up nearly half of the approximately 35 fighter jets purchased by militaries worldwide each year. Currently accounting for 2,2% of the global fleet, the F-35 is expected to grow to 4,7% over the next decade.
The report also includes a striking prediction: “By 2035, the F-35 alone will account for 9% of total global MRO spending,It will form the 5th. It, more than double today's share of the aircraft."
But the F-35s, It's not the only advanced aircraft swells militaries' fleets. US Air Force, It is also working on two sixth-generation aircraft: B-21 Raider stealth bomber and Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) also known as F-47 fighter jet.
The Air Force will also fly with piloted fighter jets.It wants a fleet of more than 000 semi-autonomous drone wingmen and is working with General Atomics and Anduril Industries on the first iteration of such systems, called Joint Combat Air Patrol (CCA). The U.S. Navy and European and Asian militaries are also turning to their own sixth-generation fighter jets. In the report, the governments of these countries, It was stated that they should take into account the impact of MRO costs on budgets when designing these aircraft.
The report cites examples of complex aircraft for military fleets Airbus A400M Atlas Advanced heavy transport aircraft such as NHIndustries NH90 helicopter European-made aircraft were also displayed. Around the world, military fleets of complex aircraft 11 percent It was stated that this rate was created after ten years to 17 percent It was emphasized that NATO fleets now spend approximately 16% of their MRO budgets on complex aircraft, and this share will increase to 2035% by 26.
The Rise of Drones and Rising Spending
The increasing importance of drones, especially in the war in Ukraine, is also causing MRO spending to increase. In the last five years, major air force fleets around the world 350 drones by adding the total number Over 1.400 This will more than double over the next decade, worldwide 3.460 to expected to arrive.
“MRO spending [on drones] has begun to grow faster than the global fleet,” the report said. “In addition to the increasing complexity of newer platforms, surge demand has been driven by aircraft needs related to the three-year conflict in Ukraine. For governments operating these aircraft, a period of higher growth will present significant challenges and questions of readiness.”
Hard Choices and Risks for Governments
The report said governments must strike the right balance between multiple priorities, including determining how valuable high aircraft readiness is compared to rising maintenance costs. It said air forces will need to expand their spare parts supply chains so they are not dependent on sources that are diminishing or even going bankrupt. The issue of drying up parts supplies has become acute over time for decades-old aircraft such as the B-52 Stratofortress.
Air forces also need to decide whether they want the aircraft or drones’ original manufacturers to do the necessary MRO work, which can be simpler but more costly.
The report also notes that if the Air Force fails to budget for increased MRO spending, other aspects of its air power could suffer. The Air Force’s recent decision to reduce the number of flight hours budgeted for its aircraft and its failure to reverse the decline in mission readiness rates by introducing new technologies and aircraft is an example of this. “As the Air Force prioritizes modernization, it is betting that it can manage these readiness risks,” the report said.
In light of the findings of this report, how armies and defense ministries around the world manage their air force budgets and respond to these rising costs will have strategic importance.
