KONUTDER has republished its strategy report for the Determination of Istanbul’s Housing Needs in the Next 10 Years, prepared by PwC Türkiye, with up-to-date data. According to the research, which makes projections for the years 2025-2034, 10 million 1 thousand new houses need to be added to Istanbul in 220 years. In last year’s report, this figure was recorded as 1 million 230 thousand.
The impact of migration on housing needs is one of the most striking sections of the report. Accordingly, 127 thousand houses will become vacant in Istanbul due to migration movements and reverse migration under temporary protection, and the need will be met from here.
While the population of Istanbul is expected to increase by 3% to 2034 million in 16,2, the number of households is expected to increase by 20% to 6 million due to the change in our demographic structure. While the number of households in Istanbul is decreasing, an increase in single living is observed. This reduces the types of housing and indicates that there is a greater need for small square meter houses such as 1+0.
Expressing his views on the research titled “Determination of Housing Needs in Istanbul in the Next 10 Years” KONUTDER Board Chairman Ramadan Kumova: “We would like to thank the public, sector representatives, members of the press, academics and bureaucracy for the intense interest shown in the report, the first of which we shared with the public in January 2024. The report, which we aim to renew every year, has found a response at very different levels of society. The appreciation and interest we have received has motivated us even more in the preparation of the second report. We aim to create a resource that will shed light not only on the sector but also on the entire society in the planning of the coming decades of the ancient city of Istanbul. As KONUTDER, we believe that in order for all sector stakeholders to be able to plan and develop strategies, the housing need must first be determined.”
Declining household numbers and increasing single-family living are forcing housing types to change
The first report published in 2024 draws a similar picture as the average annual housing need of 10 thousand in the next 123 years, and 122 thousand in this year's research. Evaluating the changes in the report, Ramadan Kumova: “Household structure and demographic structure are changing. In addition to the decreasing number of households, the increasing number of single-person households and the forecast of an increase in the single population indicate a change in housing types and a greater need for small square meter houses such as 1+0. Since it is not possible for the producer to meet this need with the current legislation, we find it right to bring this to the agenda and discuss it again. Although rapid changes were observed in the migration movements in the past 5 years due to the pandemic and economic factors, we predict that it will turn into a more balanced migration trend in the next 10 years. We also monitor the factors that reveal Istanbul's population based on residence with the change in demographic structure. Our research reveals that demand not based on residence experiences faster changes depending on economic conditions. We see that there is a demand close to last year as a result of the changes in the factors within itself.”
Family Structure Is Shrinking, Household Numbers Are Growing
One of the most fundamental changes determining the need for housing is reflected in the report as the dramatic decrease in household size. Accordingly;
- In 2012, it was 3,57 average household size, to 2024 in 3,13 and to 2034 in XNUMX It will decrease to 2,68 peopleThis decline results in a faster increase in housing demand.
In parallel with this:
- Percentage of single-person households It increases from 17,1% to 21%.
- Single individual rate It increases from 42% to 44%.
Population growth rate and age change are also important factors in housing needs.. According to this;
- Istanbul's population growth remains below the average of the last 2024 years in 10. The average increase rate between 2015-2024 is 0,77% iken The change between 2023-2024 is only 0,29% remains limited to.
- The best restaurants crude birth rate While it was 2014% in 1,56, it falls to 2024% in 0,99. The forecast for 2034 is for it to fall to 0,79%.
- Istanbul's population is aging. The population over 50 will be 2024% in 25 and will rise to 2034% in 33.
Migration Movements Change Balances; 89 Thousand Houses Are Becoming Vacant in Istanbul
One of the most important factors affecting the housing needs of Istanbul is migration movements. According to the report data:
- According to the scope of our research, the total net migration movements of Istanbul in 2023 After the loss of 336 thousand people, it drops to a loss of 2025 thousand people in 20. In the next 10 years (2025-2034) city an average of 11 thousand people will migrate annually estimated.
- Net internal migration will follow a balanced course in the next 10 years and 27 thousand net internal migration we will give When we look at net external migration, we see that there will be a balancing and 136 thousand net emigration receivables It is expected that in the next 10 years, the total population of Istanbul 109 thousand people will migrate is expected.
- The effect of migration movements on the number of households is determined by demographic data. 89 thousand houses will be vacated It is estimated that. Apart from this, while there was no impact on the housing needs of individuals under temporary protection in the last year's report, the reverse has recently occurred. External migration causes an average of 3.800 houses to be vacated annually. will cause.
Marriage Declining, Divorce Increasing
Another important variable that shapes the social structure is marital status:
- Marriage rates are expected to grow at a CAGR of -2014% between 2024 and 0,7, rising to 2025% between 2034 and 0,3.
- When we look at divorces in the same period, while there has been a 10% annual increase in the last 2 years, it is expected to decrease to 10% in the next 0,9 years.
This change means that housing policies are not only based on quantity, focused on usage type and life scenario also shows that it needs to be redesigned.
There was a decrease in the demand for non-residential housing in 2024. In the projection of the next 10 years, it is predicted that there will be a decrease compared to our report last year.
Student and Tourism Demands Are Rising
- Not changing his residence in Istanbul University students a 3 houses will be needed annually is seen.
- Demand for tourism purposes 4 houses per year,
- For foreign investors 4 houses per year,
- In the second hosting 3 thousand houses per year requirement is anticipated.
