As the future of the war in Ukraine remains uncertain, it is becoming clear that the United States must continue to supply arms to Kiev. While Ukraine has made significant progress in some areas, the fact that Europe still lacks the military-industrial capacity to replace America’s makes U.S. support for Ukraine sustainable. As long as Europe’s military power cannot fill this gap, U.S. arms aid will remain critical to Ukraine.
America's Aid to Ukraine: A Strategic Investment
The United States provided Ukraine with nearly $24 billion in security assistance in response to Putin’s large-scale invasion on February 2022, 67. That vast sum represents only 3% of Washington’s total Pentagon spending. But this investment has not only strengthened Ukraine’s defenses, it has also weakened Russia’s military capabilities. The destruction of over 10.500 tanks and armored vehicles, more than 270 aircraft, and a significant portion of the Russian Black Sea fleet has significantly reduced Putin’s ability to launch an offensive against Ukraine.
Given the short-term and long-term effects of this assistance, U.S. support for Ukraine weakens Russia’s potential for aggression against both Ukraine and its NATO allies. U.S. weapons, combined with Ukraine’s courage and sacrifice, provide a significant barrier to deterring future Russian military actions.
Support for Taiwan and the US Strategic Dilemma
The US security assistance to Ukraine is not only a regional deterrent, but also a critical part of global strategy. Taiwan is under threat from China and needs US support to deter any potential aggression by Beijing. In this context, the US’s disregard for Taiwan while providing arms to Ukraine could lead Beijing to take bolder steps.
If the US were to support Ukraine while neglecting Taiwan, China could increase its potential for aggression by assuming that Washington would not intervene in military conflicts in the Taiwan Strait. This scenario could lead to a period in which Taiwan’s freedom would be threatened. However, there is also the question of whether the US has the capacity to simultaneously supply arms to Ukraine and Taiwan. Fortunately, analysis has shown that the US has the industrial capacity to provide assistance to both countries.
Arms Supply to Ukraine and Taiwan: Industrial Capacity and Strategic Planning
In the analysis of the US weapons supply capacity, it was found that the shipment of 15 major weapons systems and ammunition to Ukraine and Taiwan to Kiev did not delay the deliveries to Taipei by more than a year. This is because the two countries have different geographical and strategic needs. In addition, some production lines have been improved and supplies have been provided quickly from existing inventories.
For example, the production of Javelin missiles has accelerated after the Trump administration rejected a move by the Obama administration, and this production capacity will double in the coming years. This will speed up the supply of weapons to Ukraine. In addition, some weapons systems can be supplied from old US inventories and shipped quickly. Taiwan mostly demands new systems, but this demand can be met in line with US production capacity.
Global Security and Strategic Balance: America's Responsibility
Ukraine’s resistance to the occupation has gone beyond being a mere regional issue. The US’s assistance also plays a critical role in deterring a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan. If the US does not transfer its support for Ukraine to Taiwan, China’s threats to Taiwan could become even stronger. Fortunately, however, the US’s weapons production capacity and strategic planning make it possible to contribute to the defense of both countries.
The US support for Ukraine not only weakens Russia’s capacity for aggression, but also sends a strong deterrent message to China. The US can continue to provide assistance to Ukraine and Taiwan at the same time, considering the strategic balances in both regions. This would be a critical step in ensuring global security.
