Satellite imagery reveals a significant military concentration at Olenya Air Base on the Kola Peninsula in northwestern Russia. Specifically, 10 Tu-95MS bombers known as Bear-H by NATO, 35 Tu-22M3 bombers known as Backfire-C, and 5 An-12 transport aircraft known as Cub are concentrated at this strategic base. In addition, 3 Tu-134UBL trainer aircraft known as Crusty and 4 Mi-8 helicopters known as Hip are also stationed at the base. A total of 45 combat and transport vehicles are deployed in this remote base area. This raises several questions about Russia’s military intentions, especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the proximity of Olenya Air Base to NATO borders.
Strategic Importance of Olenya Air Base
Olenya Air Base has a long history as the center of Russia’s long-range aviation. Located on the Kola Peninsula, the base’s 3.500-meter long runway allows for the deployment of large-range and heavy aircraft. This made it an ideal base for use as a refueling base for flights between Moscow and Havana, particularly during the Cold War. More recently, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Olenya has become a major base from which to launch missile attacks on Ukraine.
Increase in Aircraft Deployments and Its Strategic Meaning
This large deployment at Olenya stands out as a remarkable development when compared to past examples. For example, satellite images taken in May 2023 showed that there were 14 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-160 and 2 Tu-22M3 bombers, as well as many transport aircraft and helicopters at Olenya Air Base. This concentration occurred before a major airstrike on Ukrainian cities, and the large deployments at Olenya in particular signaled preparation for such attacks. In May 2024, 12 Tu-95MS and 13 Tu-22M3 bombers were at the base, indicating that a large portion of Russia’s combat-ready fleet was concentrated at Olenya.
The latest deployment at Olenya marks the largest concentration of aircraft at the base since the beginning of the war. The presence of 45 fighter jets indicates that Russia is making significant military preparations and taking a strategic step for a possible attack. Such a large deployment could herald a new wave of attacks, particularly against Ukraine.
Observations and Expert Opinions
The significance of this latest deployment has been interpreted in various ways by Western experts. Michael Clarke, former director of the Royal United Services Institute in London, suggests that Russia could be massing its air assets as spring approaches in an attempt to exploit potential weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defenses. According to Clarke, this preparation could signal the beginning of a major offensive. In addition, Olenya’s location, some 1.800 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, provides a safe haven for aircraft in the area, protecting them from Ukraine’s conventional weapons and drones.
The deployment of 45 fighter jets at Olenya Air Base provides an important clue to understanding Russia’s strategic intentions in the Ukraine war. Given past examples and missile attacks following such large-scale preparations, it can be said that this concentration is a preparation for launching a new air attack on Ukraine as the next step. Russia’s use of such strategic moves to exploit weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defenses could be a critical turning point that could change the course of the war.
