Konutder President Ramadan Kumova evaluated the February 2025 Housing Sales Statistics announced by TÜİK today.
Housing sales across Turkey will increase by 2025% in February 20,1 compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching 112, while remaining almost the same as January 818. In Istanbul, there is an increase of 2025% compared to the previous year and 18,4% compared to January.
In order to talk about a healthy market, the share of first-hand housing sales in total sales should be around 1% as it was in the past, but we see that in the figures announced today, this is only 50%.
Similarly, while the ideal housing sales on credit are expected to be around 50%, they were at 2025% in the first two months of 14,9. In order to create a balanced market environment, loan interest rates should fall below 1%, land costs should fall to 30%, and credit restrictions imposed on housing investors should be eliminated.
1st hand home sales are only half of what they should be
If we consider that the minimum annual new housing need in Türkiye is 750 thousand, sustainable production conditions can only be achieved with a monthly average of 62 first-hand housing sales. However, the average of the first 500 months is only half of what it should be, at 1 units. The situation is even worse in Istanbul. While an average of 2 thousand sales are needed in Istanbul per month, the average in the first 33.285 months of 12 is only 2025 units. This means 2% of what it should be. There are 4.859 districts in Istanbul. This figure shows that only 42 new housing units are sold per district per month on average. This is a very low level for a metropolis like Istanbul.
Therefore, although the recovery process will begin in the second half of 2024, the necessary leap for the housing market to reach the required balance has not yet occurred. A balancing can occur in the market with the decrease in loan interest rates and land costs, the increase in first-hand sales rates, and the removal of restrictions imposed on housing investors. Neither rents nor housing prices will stop unless these conditions are met.
The housing sales market to foreigners is growing all over the world, while Türkiye is losing blood
On the other hand, the decline in sales to foreigners continued, with a 21,1% decrease in February. Just a few years ago, we were talking about sales figures of around 10 billion dollars, compared to sales targets of 2 billion dollars. The size of the housing sales market to foreigners worldwide today is around 400 billion dollars, and it is expected to reach 5 billion dollars in the next 600 years, and we, as Turkey, are constantly losing blood in this market. Advertising campaigns and incentives abroad are now inevitable to change this.
