Kendall Announces 2050 Vision and F-35 Successor

On Monday, outgoing Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall made significant statements about the Air Force’s strategies for maintaining air superiority under the Trump administration. Kendall specifically suggested that the costly Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform could be replaced by a more advanced version of the F-35’s successor. These comments were made in light of a report assessing the Air Force’s expected transformation through 2050 and the threats it will face.

Kendall’s report, “The Department of the Air Force in 2050,” proposes alternative paths for the Air Force’s future combat fleet. It also provides critical insight into how U.S. air and space power will evolve to meet evolving threats. Kendall stressed that the Air Force must not only maintain traditional air superiority, but also develop next-generation standoff capabilities and space operations.

Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and Alternatives

Kendall said there is uncertainty about the future of the program, given the excessive costs of the NGAD platform and the high research and development budget. An NGAD contract was initially planned for 2024, but that process has been delayed and the research and development budget must be increased by $20 billion. However, he noted that the potential cost of NGAD is so expensive that it will only allow for a small fleet of fighter jets. For this reason, the Air Force should consider more economical alternatives to NGAD.

As an alternative, Kendall said the successor to the F-35 could be a multi-role aircraft designed to control CCAs. He noted that this aircraft would be much more cost-effective than the NGAD. The report also recommends increasing the Air Force's long-range strike capabilities. He said long-range cruise missiles could play a significant role in achieving this goal.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and Cultural Change

Kendall expressed hesitation about the idea of ​​the Air Force moving from crewed fighter jets to unmanned aircraft, as suggested by Elon Musk and some other advisors. He noted that the transition to unmanned aircraft would require a major cultural shift, given the Air Force's historical culture and the important role of pilots. He expressed that the transition would pose a significant emotional barrier for the Air Force and that he doubted the organization was ready for it.

The Evolving Role of the Space Force

A significant portion of Kendall’s report was devoted to the Space Force. The report emphasized the threats in the space environment and the need to develop strategies in this area. China and Russia in particular are expected to show more aggression in space, and therefore the importance of space operations is increasing. Kendall noted that developments in space technologies in recent years have reduced costs and that global dependence in this area will increase even more in the future. The Space Force will operate on a larger scale in the next 25 years and the number of satellites in orbit will increase.

Transforming the Air and Space Forces

Frank Kendall’s statements reveal how the Air Force and Space Force will transform by 2050. The Air Force is expected to face a complex strategy that includes fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles, and long-range strike capabilities. The Space Force, on the other hand, will continue to expand in line with increasing threats and operational requirements in space. This transformation seems to bring about not only technological but also organizational and cultural change. In this context, the future of the Air Force and Space Force will be subject to a process of evolution that is not only technological but also strategic and cultural.