GAO: Air Force AFFORGEN Model Contains Risks

U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) The report published by The Air Force's new deployment model AFFORGEN (Air Force Force Generation) The report highlights that the country faces risks in providing sufficient personnel for its overseas and domestic missions. The report stresses that personnel shortages could lead to disruption of missions both abroad and at home bases.

What is the AFFORGEN Model?

AFFORGEN aims to modernize the Air Force’s current deployment system and transform it into a more effective and compatible structure. This model includes the following innovations:

1. Expeditionary Air Bases:
   Special force packages are being created in which air personnel from different bases are trained and deployed together.
2. Air Task Forces:
   Units are created that are brought together for a specific task, receive training together, and work in high harmony during the mission.
3. Wing Based Structure:
   Personnel and equipment in a single wing are deployed overseas as a whole. This structure aims to increase personnel cohesion and strengthen performance.

Findings of the GAO Report

The GAO report highlights significant challenges faced in the transition to the AFFORGEN model:

1. Staff Shortage and Mission Risks

• Personnel Shortage at Main Bases:
  During overseas deployments, shortages of critical personnel such as civil engineers, supply support, medical personnel, air traffic controllers, and nuclear weapons management may occur at home bases.
• Defense and Cyber ​​Operations:
  Personnel shortages could limit bases’ capacity to maintain cyber defense and security operations.

2. Deficiencies in Deployment Planning

• Incorrect Assessment of Staff Number:
  It was stated that some bases overestimated the number of personnel deployed and did not take into account the daily support required by the main bases.
• Mission Continuity Risk:
  The ability of bases to defend and maintain their operational missions may be reduced, making them more vulnerable to external threats.

3. Difficulties in Transitioning to AFFORGEN

• Small and Specialist Units:
  The Air Force aims to consolidate more than 3.000 small, specialized units that form the building blocks of deployment, but the process adds complexity.
• Education and Adaptation Issues:
  Bringing together personnel who have never worked together before may negatively impact task compatibility.

GAO's Recommendations

To make the Air Force's new deployment model more effective, the GAO made the following recommendations:

1. Staff Evaluation:
   Determining the minimum number of personnel required to maintain operational activities of bases during overseas deployments.
2. Identifying Potential Risks:
   Systematically analyzing gaps and risks that may arise during deployments.
3. Unit Consolidation:
   Consolidation of small and specialized units into larger, more cohesive groups. Target date: September 2026.

Defense Department Response

The Department of Defense accepted the GAO's recommendations and revamped the personnel evaluation process. January 1, 2024 He also announced that he supported the Air Force's long-term consolidation goals.

The Air Force’s transition to the AFFORGEN model aims to create a more effective deployment system, but it faces serious challenges such as personnel shortages, mission continuity, and operational risks. GAO’s findings suggest that this process needs to be conducted in a more planned and systematic manner.

To overcome these challenges, it is critical for the Air Force to successfully execute both human resource planning and unit integration. The measures taken during this process will directly impact the Air Force's operational effectiveness and security.