Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Risks and Adaptation Strategies

A major study led by scientists from the CICERO International Centre for Climate Research and supported by the University of Reading has found that if emissions are to be reduced to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, 20 percent of the population may face extreme weather risks, and if limited measures are taken, this rate could rise to 70 percent. This new paper, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows that global warming, combined with natural changes in weather patterns, could create rapid changes in both temperature extremes and precipitation that will last for decades.

There are very few studies that have investigated the impact of extreme weather on different countries. Dr. Carley Iles, lead author of the study from CICERO, said: “We focus on regional changes that are closer to the experiences of people and ecosystems than to global averages. We are trying to identify regions that will experience significant changes in the rates of one or more extreme event indices over the coming decades.” He made statements as follows.

The Impact of Unprecedented Circumstances

The Impact of Unprecedented Circumstances

This study projects that most tropical and subtropical regions, which cover about 70 percent of the current population, will experience strong co-variation in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20 years under high emissions scenarios. With strong emissions reductions, this figure is expected to drop to 20 percent, around 1,5 billion people. Rapid changes increase the risk of unprecedented conditions and extreme events that account for a disproportionate share of the current impacts of climate change.

For example, extreme heat waves can cause heat stress in humans and livestock, excessive mortality, stress in ecosystems, reduced agricultural yields, difficulties in cooling power plants, and disruption of transportation. Similarly, excessive rainfall can cause flooding, damage settlements, infrastructure, crops and ecosystems, increase erosion and deteriorate water quality. These situations make society vulnerable to extreme rates of rapid change, especially when multiple hazards are increasing simultaneously.

Cleaning Risks and Climate Adaptation

Co-author Dr Laura Wilcox, University of Reading, said: “We also found that the rapid clearing of air pollution, mostly over Asia, caused simultaneous increases in extreme heat and affected the Asian summer monsoons. While clearing the air is critical for health, air pollution was also masking some of the effects of global warming.” He used the expressions. “Now, the necessary cleanup combined with global warming could produce very strong changes in extreme conditions in the coming decades.”

While the new paper focuses on the possibility of rapid change, the authors emphasize that the results have important implications for climate adaptation. “We calculate that in the best-case scenario, rapid changes will affect 1,5 billion people. The only way to cope with this is to prepare for a situation where unprecedented extreme events are much more likely to occur in the next 1-2 decades.” says Dr. Bjørn H. Samset of the CICERO International Centre for Climate Research.