Energy dynamics, which are at the top of the world and Turkey's agenda, and the issue of electric vehicles, which are of great importance in terms of climate, were discussed in the conference and panel titled "Electric Vehicles Outlook in the World and in Turkey" organized by Sabancı University Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC) in Istanbul. It was discussed. At the conference, where the role of electric vehicles in the energy and climate future and their development perspectives were shared, the “Turkey Electric Vehicles Outlook” report, which is a first in Turkey, was also launched by IICEC.
International Energy Agency (IEA) President Dr. Fatih Birol said, “There is a rapid development in electric vehicles in the world. In the 2018-2019 period, two out of every hundred cars sold in the world were electric cars. Today, we see that this is approaching from 2 percent to 10 percent. One of the most important items in electric car production is the battery. A 2030-fold growth is expected in current capacity by 10," he said.
TOGG CEO Gürcan Karakaş said, “The rules of the game are changing in the world. In particular, the rules are changing between the energy sector, automobile world and technology world triangle. As TOGG, we look at the event holistically. Because we're here to do more than just cars. We are starting our mass production and market launch in the first quarter of 2023.” he said.
Haydar Yenigün, President of the Automotive Industry Association (OSD), said, “The Green Consensus gives us a clear definition and countries are signing under it. In fact, many of the OSD members will have converted almost all of their automobile production to electricity by 2030. Because the Turkish automotive industry exports more than 85% to Europe. Automobiles will come first, light commercial vehicles will follow immediately, and trucks and buses will follow immediately,” he said.
IICEC Director Bora Şekip Güray, according to the High Growth Scenario included in the Turkey Electric Vehicles Outlook report; He said that if electric vehicles reach more than a third of new sales and the total electric vehicle park reaches 2030 million by 2, it will be possible to save 2,5 billion dollars in Turkey's oil bill.
The role of electric vehicles in the future of energy and climate and their development perspectives were discussed at the conference and panel titled “Electric Vehicles Outlook in the World and in Turkey” organized by Sabancı University Istanbul International Energy and Climate Center (IICEC) in Istanbul. International Energy Agency (IEA) President Dr. Fatih Birol, TOGG CEO Gürcan Karakaş and Automotive Industry Association (OSD) President Haydar Yenigün as speakers, and IICEC Director Bora Şekip Güray also made the launch presentation of the "Turkey Electric Vehicles Outlook" report, which was made for the first time in Turkey. It was done by.
Electric vehicles see rapid development
Speaking at the opening of the conference, which was held online with live broadcast, International Energy Agency (IEA) President Dr. Fatih Birol emphasized that Sabancı University Istanbul International Center for Energy and Climate (IICEC) has accomplished a very important work in a short period of one year. In his speech, Fatih Birol made a detailed presentation on energy and climate, new energy technologies and the situation in the world in electric vehicles, and the world energy markets.
“The main way to solve the climate problem is to get the energy sector clean. Important steps are being taken in this regard. The most important step was concluded in Glasgow last month. All countries have made a commitment to bring emissions to zero in the coming years. A new energy system is on the horizon in the world. A new energy system is being established. Renewable energy hydrogen, electric cars, digitalization, nuclear. Important steps are being taken in all of these.
There is a rapid development in electric vehicles in the world. Two out of every hundred cars sold in the world in 2018-2019 were electric cars. Today, we see that this is approaching from 2 percent to 10 percent. It is clear from my conversations with the US Secretary of Energy, the Secretary of Transportation, and all the big CEOs there; that it will come in waves. In my meeting with the CEOs of 20 of the world's largest car manufacturers a few weeks ago, 18 of them think that by 2030 electric cars will be the main production area.
The most important issue is battery technology.
One of the most important items in electric car production is the battery. A 2030-fold growth is expected in current capacity by 10. Especially in lithium-ion batteries, there is a serious increase from Europe to Asia, from Asia to America. Critical minerals are needed during manufacturing. Lithium is one of them. One of them is magnesium, cobalt, they are all scattered around the world. But three quarters are focused on only a few countries. It is not possible how we can separate this from energy supply security. Dependence on critical minerals is a serious problem. And it is important not only where the minerals are, but also where they are processed. Currently, 90 percent of the refining capacity is in a single country; ie in China. Many countries are negotiating with each other to establish a new system of critical energy supply security under the leadership of the International Energy Agency.
While every new energy technology has come to the fore in the past, it does not seem possible for these technologies to be implemented suddenly without the support of governments. These are needed in the energy sector, at least especially in its infancy. The story of Tesla, which Hereks followed with envy, started with great support from the recovery fund after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. About half a billion dollars. This initial boost played a huge role in Tesla's success today.
If countries meet their climate change commitments, lithium demand will increase 10 times in 7 years. This is a huge increase and prices will go up. Many countries have reserves of critical minerals, but they have never been studied until now. Countries such as Canada, the USA, Europe and Australia are trying to enact new laws and remove all of these lithium or nickel mines. If a new second economic recovery law, which is about to be released in the USA but still has not been enacted, there will be a very rapid increase in the demand for electric cars. This could put upward pressure on lithium and other critical minerals. New supply policies may be a timing issue between production policies and demand. Demand is slightly higher and may push prices up. It is possible to foresee such a risk now.”
“The rules of the game are changing in the world”
TOGG CEO Gürcan Karakaş noted the world's view of electric vehicles and their work at TOGG: “The rules of the game are changing in the world. In particular, the rules are changing between the energy sector, automobile world and technology world triangle. In terms of technology, some concerns and problems regarding electric vehicles have been resolved. Costs are falling rapidly, range concerns are resolved. In addition, with fast charging, we can easily charge 80 percent of the battery in less than half an hour. In addition, the turnover and profitability of the sector continue to grow. When we look at 2035, there is a growing profitability area with data-based business models emerging with new generation vehicles. If we don't start product development for the 40 percent area from today, if we don't get ready to take our place there, we will have trouble in terms of profitability. Here, the role of states is of great importance. When we look at the whole world, the first to see this was the Chinese, in our opinion. But in our country, we are progressing rapidly with the support of our state and with the vision of transition to electrification.
As for TOGG; We look at the event holistically. We're here to do more than just cars. For this, we need to design the vehicle we designed from the beginning both around the battery and as a smart device. We do this within the framework of the new generation electrical and electronic architecture. After tomorrow, software power will make the difference, not horsepower. The world of the future is now a world with a central computer. The future is heading towards this. We divided the central computer into four. Because right now we are racing against time. We are starting our mass production and market launch in the first quarter of 2023. In 2026-2027, we will have completely designed and industrialized our own central computer. Here, environmental awareness is also of great importance. We are currently establishing the cleanest facility in the world, in Gemlik, in order to adapt here and to keep our environmental awareness at the forefront. We continue our work. In January, we will have our world launch in Las Vegas.”
A clear definition was made with the green agreement
Automotive Industry Association (OSD) President Haydar Yenigün stated that a clear definition was made for the automotive sector, which has been going through a difficult process due to the pandemic conditions, with the Green Agreement, and noted that a process in which interesting developments will be seen in the sector has been entered.
Stating that the automotive industry produces more than 5 percent of the national income in Turkey, Haydar Yenigün said: “There is a capacity of around 2 million, which we expect to increase to 1 million in the next 2-2,5 years. 2% of our 85 million installed capacity is exported. We have a foreign trade surplus of 6,8 billion dollars. In order to maintain this, I have to say that R&D investments are indispensable. These R&D investments, which the government has especially encouraged for the last 10 years, have received a very clear answer from the sector. There are over 157 employees in our 4 R&D centers. So where do these figures bring all this effort to Turkey? When you look at the 6th commercial vehicle in Europe in terms of automobile production, we are in the 2nd place, that is, in the 4th place in Europe in total.
When we come to electric vehicles, two pictures emerge. Now, customers put the protection of our world as a priority before us, the producers. They also want connected vehicles, autonomous vehicles as well as sharing-friendly vehicles, thus electric vehicles.
By 2030, all of these have to be implemented. Because the Green Deal gives us a clear description and countries are signing it. In fact, many of the OSD members will have converted almost all of their automobile production to electricity by 2030. Because the Turkish automotive industry exports more than 85% to Europe. This is essential for us. Automobiles will be the earliest, followed by light commercial vehicles, followed by trucks and buses. Their job is a little more difficult. It has to wait for some more hydrogen to enter the system. After all, their goal of being neutral will end in 5, more or less.
As the automotive industry, we will have accomplished this long before Turkey's target date. The subject that is directly related to us is the charging stations. There is a technological development that is almost as interesting as the technology of the automotive industry.
We need digital technologies here. Also, you cannot control this circular economy without blockchain. In other words, if you keep track of a battery when you produce a battery, you can ensure that the circular economy works correctly.
For all these, I'm talking about the change in legislation, having a transition plan, incentive mechanisms and a serious restructuring of the tax policy, which I will say specific to Turkey. These are all issues that need to be seriously addressed by lawmakers.”
“It is possible to save 2030 billion dollars on the oil bill by 2,5”
IICEC Director Bora Şekip Güray, who made the presentation of the "Turkey Electric Vehicles Outlook" report prepared by IICEC as a result of long research at the conference, underlined that the report, which includes an analytical view for the present and future of electric vehicles, is a first in Turkey and said:
“In this study, in which we numerically show the significant contributions of growth in electric vehicles to Turkey's energy balances and environmental performance, we have taken the modeling infrastructure and scenario-based analyzes we developed as IICEC as basis. According to this; In the High Growth Scenario, where electric vehicles have a share of more than one-third in new sales and the total electric vehicle park reaches 2030 million in 2; By substituting oil for electricity, 2021 billion dollars can be saved on the oil bill at 2,5 prices. This savings in oil consumption, achieved with clean electricity, not only reduces the risks arising from price fluctuations in oil supply, of which Turkey is a major importer, but also supports the goals of strengthening energy security. In this scenario, road transport emissions, which are also in the second place in Turkey's emissions inventory, start to decline before 2030, supporting the vision of an energy future with net-zero emissions and a clean energy transformation perspective.
In this study, which analyzes examples of good practices in the world, global and regional trends, Turkey's high development potential and opportunities in this field with an analytical approach, we present 5 concrete suggestions for the stakeholders of the e-mobility ecosystem.”
5 concrete suggestions
- Determining concrete, realistic and achievable policy targets in line with the 2053 net-zero target and clean energy transformation, and implementing guiding and supporting mechanisms;
- Ensuring the sustainability of this transformation through the development of green energy resources;
- Developing a holistic E-mobility ecosystem that focuses on the environment and technology, in cooperation and coordination with the public, private sector, academia, on the axis of maximum social benefit;
- Accelerating R&D and domestic production in technologies that offer high value propositions such as digitalization, smart systems, and energy storage;
- Strengthening the individual and corporate entrepreneurship ecosystem and human resources potential to support positioning as a regional and global actor.
Güray underlined that the report also included important messages such as the evaluation of technology-oriented opportunities for the competitive transformation of the automotive industry, which is very critical for Turkey, the most efficient planning and operation of charging points and electricity distribution networks, and the dissemination of innovative financing and new generation business models.
After the conference, under the moderation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Energy Sector Country Department Manager Mehmet Erdem Yaşar, Zorlu Energy CEO Sinan Ak, Shell Country President Ahmet Erdem, Electricity Distribution Services Association (ELDER) Secretary General Özge Özden, SiRo General Manager Özgür Özel and Murat Pınar, who is the Chairman of the Board of EUROGIA and Eşarj, attended the panel as speakers. At the panel, the participants who emphasized the importance of electric vehicles in terms of energy dynamics and climate said;
“As Shell, we aim to establish 2025 thousand charging points by 250 and 2050 million by 5”
Shell Turkey Country President Ahmet Erdem: “One of the most important events of 2021 was undoubtedly the approval of the Paris Agreement in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and the drawing of the roadmap for the green agreement text in the Parliament. The expectation for the next year will be the works that will determine the roadmap of the 2053 net carbon zero journey. As a company that has been working on this issue since the mid-1990s, we clearly support the net carbon zero requirement in 2050 within the framework of the Paris Agreement. In doing so, we have a plan to halve all of the carbon emissions from our own operations, the energy resources we purchase from outside, and of course, the use of energy we offer to consumers, by 2030, and to zero by 2050. At the point of new products, we started to work in areas such as hydrogen and bio fuels. Shell has a plan to convert 15 of its 6 major refineries into energy parks. In this framework, we will reduce our refined product production by 2025 percent until 55. One of Shell's major investments is in renewable energy sources. There are facilities that we set up at our own stations, especially for vehicle charging. As Shell, we also carry out numerous partnership and acquisition operations. We aim to establish 2025 thousand charging points by 250 and 2050 million charging points by 5.”
“I think investments will accelerate if the regulatory steps are completed”
Zorlu Energy CEO Sinan Ak: “In today's conditions, in order to travel with gasoline vehicles, you go to gas stations, get your gas in 5-10 minutes and continue on your way. But when you switch to electric vehicles, we will be doing this at homes, workplaces and shopping malls. When you want to expand this business and spread it to the public, a serious investment should be made especially in the places belonging to the municipalities. This seems to be the hardest part. As far as we can see, although the municipalities are trying to make some breakthroughs, they are far behind in this regard for the time being. Thinking mentalities need to change. The important thing here is that the regulation is still incomplete. It is beneficial for all stakeholders to participate in this process. I think that investments will accelerate if regulatory steps are taken. The range of electric vehicles is 500 kilometers, but when the speed on the roads is taken into account, the infrastructure for these charging points should be accelerated. We think that the government should also have some incentive mechanisms. The most important issue is that the infrastructure should be encouraged on intercity roads, especially during periods when circulation is intense.”
“Distribution companies will play an important role”
Özge Özden, Secretary General of the Electricity Distribution Services Association (ELDER): When we look at domestic trends, TOGG has investments, our companies like Zorlu Group are already producing charging units. Therefore, we need to talk about a multidimensional domain such as industry, technology, employment and growth at the national level. In the Economic Reforms Action Plan dated March 12, 2021, a target for the implementation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure by the end of this year was determined by the government. There is one main goal where we collect all the trends; and that is to implement the shortest electric vehicle charging infrastructure without separating every single point of Turkey. At this point, there are some difficulties in realizing this with only market dynamics due to both technological costs and conditions specific to our country. Currently, the return on investments seems long due to production costs. In addition, there are problems at the point of diffusion. I think electricity distribution companies can play a role in overcoming these.”
“We aim to enter the domestic production of battery cells developed in Turkey by 2026”
SiRo General Manager Özgür Özel: “As TOGG, we are in talks with the world's leading battery manufacturers. We had a detailed set of criteria for this. One of them is energy intensity, the other is cost and logistics. We chose Farasis, which is the most suitable for us among the criteria such as guarantee conditions, durability and safety for manufacturing in Turkey. Farasis has technology that provides an advantage in energy density between 15-25 percent compared to its competitors. We have also started strategic partnership negotiations. While doing this, our aim was to make production in Turkey on the one hand and to enter the main technology of the business on the other hand. First of all, we want to prepare our production facility next year. We want to organize our production in a way that supports TOGG's production plan. We aim to develop our R&D, grow our team rapidly and enter the domestic production of the cell developed in Turkey in 2026. This is not just about TOGG. Just as there is a window of opportunity in electric vehicles, the same window of opportunity exists for batteries. In summary; We think we are doing the right job at the right time. While doing all this, we have an investment plan of 30 billion TL. The contribution of this to our country, to the GNP, according to our calculations; We foresee an impact of 2032 billion Euros until 30 and another 10 billion Euros in terms of reducing the current account deficit.”
“Actually, we are all working on a new lifestyle”
Murat Pınar, who is the Chairman of the Board of Directors at EUROGIA and Eşarj: “When we say electric vehicles, we need to design technology around batteries, yes, but also around people in general. Today we are still talking about 4-seater cars in the American story. When looking at development, we actually have to look at it with this. Does everyone really want a 4-seater, or will micro-mobility be more prominent? When we look at it, you are producing vehicles. You focused around people. Because he will spend his life in it. But what about people-orientedness there? We no longer go from point 'a' to point 'b'. There is a computer on it, you are connected to the internet. With that, you stay connected to life. Besides, it is now connected to an active network. In other words, it is a walking generator and you will be able to use it easily when the electricity is cut off. Now, new requests are coming from those definitions. Eventually I put them all together. In fact, we are all working on a new way of life. Of course, if we are going to change the lifestyle of the future, it is also important that we ask future generations. Therefore, I think it would be beneficial to ask them and get their answers on what will happen in the future and prepare accordingly.”