Over the next 20 years, Airbus predicts that demand for air transport will shift from fleet growth to accelerated retirement of aging and less fuel-efficient aircraft, resulting in a demand for approximately 39.000 new generation passenger and cargo aircraft, of which 15.250 are intended to replace existing ones. predicts. As a result, by 2040, the vast majority of commercial aircraft in operation will have next-generation technologies (about 13% today), which will significantly increase the CO2 efficiency of the world's commercial aircraft fleets. The economic benefits of aviation extend beyond the industry, contributing approximately 4% to annual global GDP and employing approximately 90 million people worldwide.
Despite nearly two years of growth lost during the pandemic, traffic figures have been an indicator of resilience, and annual growth of 3,9% will be restored, driven by expanding economies and trade around the world, including tourism. The number of the middle classes most likely to fly will increase by 2 billion to reach 63% of the world's population. The fastest traffic growth will be in Asia, with the Chinese domestic market being the largest.
Of the demand for new aircraft, 29.700 will be from small aircraft such as the A220 and A320 Families, and 5.300 from the medium aircraft category such as the A321XLR and A330neo. In the wide body segment covered by the A350, around 2040 deliveries are expected by 4.000.
Cargo demand powered by e-commerce consists of an expected 4,7% annual growth in express shipping and 75% growth in general cargo (representing approximately 2,7% of the market). Overall, about 20 cargo aircraft will be needed over the next 880 years, of which 2.440 will be newly built.
Parallel to growth, increasingly efficient aircraft operations worldwide increase the need for commercial aviation services, including maintenance, training, upgrades, flight operations, dismantling and recycling. This growth approaches Airbus's pre-pandemic forecast levels, which includes reaching a cumulative value of around $20 trillion over the next 4,8 years. While a Covid-induced decline of around 2020% continues in 2025-20, the services market is recovering and it is estimated that more than 20 new pilots and over 550.000 highly skilled technicians will be needed over the next 710.000 years. While maintenance remains the leading services segment, significant growth is also expected in flight, ground operations and sustainable services.
Christian Scherer, President and Commercial Director of Airbus International, said: “As economies and air transport mature, we see demand driven by replacement rather than growth. Modification is today's most important driver for decarbonization. The world expects more sustainable flying, and this will be possible in the short term with the introduction of the most modern aircraft. Powering these new and efficient aircraft with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) is the next big step. “We are proud that, before we implement ZEROe from 2035, all of our aircraft (A220, A320neo Family, A330neo and A350) are already certified to fly with a 2030% SAF mix, reaching 100% by 50.”
The global aviation industry has already made huge efficiency gains, with a 1990% reduction in CO2 emissions globally since 53. Airbus' product range contributes to this gain by offering at least 20% CO2 efficiency compared to previous generation aircraft. Given continued innovation, product enhancements, operational improvements and market-based options, Airbus supports the air transport industry's goal of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
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