EGİAD Aegean Young Business People Association, Turkey's leading investment services and asset management group, organized by FAMOUS & Co. co-operation "2021 Year Global Macro Economic Outlook, Turkey's Economy and Markets titled" webinar was deposited with the economic agenda on the table. FAMOUS & Co Research Department Senior Manager Gökhan Uskuay the effects of the pandemic on the global economy webinars as guest speakers, market changes and their impact on the economy experienced in recent years in Turkey were discussed.
Meeting held on zoom, EGİAD member business world showed great interest. Making the opening speech of the meeting EGİAD The economy realized with the cooperation of ÜNLÜ & Co, Chairman of the Board of Directors Alp Avni Yelkenbiçer sohbetyours EGİAD He stated that it will be organized regularly every quarter, and that these meetings can be held as a route so that member business people can see their future as the economic agenda. Unlu & Co's 1st Venture Capital Investment Fund EGİAD Yelkenbiçer, who shared the information that an investment decision was made with a few members of his angels, said, “ÜNLÜ & Co is a company with high goodwill that creates value for all its stakeholders with its foreign investments and nearly 500 employees. As a reflection of this, it has applied to the Capital Markets Board for the public offering of 25%. ÜNLÜ & Co, which has leading activities in terms of corporate social responsibility, encourages women in their entrepreneurship journey by providing full-fledged guidance on everything they need, especially through the Women Entrepreneurs Academy it has established.
Emphasizing that since 2020, all world economies have had to take important economic steps against the heavy effects of the pandemic, Yelkenbiçer said, “Central banks printing money for expansion and financial policy support to the jobs and employees stopped due to the pandemic has taken the lead as the methods used. If this was Turkey's economy unless both levels of dollarization of 25'lerdeyk% from the steps she can take to the high inflation in 2018 will be very fragile because the couple looking in double digits since quite limited. At this point, the year 2021 was expected to be a year in which the global economy could enter a growth trend globally, with the predictions that consumption would continue to increase with the thought that it would be a year in which vaccination would be carried out quickly, economic activities would be supported globally and aid would continue. Even at Christmas especially economists predict that the economy of the TUSIAD 5,5% globally, also was in the form of Turkey's economy will grow by 4.5%. It may be possible for our country to reach capital and growth only by constructing correct economic policies. Although the decision taken by the central bank last week not to increase the interest rate is interpreted as the continuation of the current policy, the potential for early relaxation in monetary and credit policies carries the risk of further increasing the current inflation trend. Food commodity prices, which are in an increasing trend globally, are another risk factor for the course of inflation ”.
FAMOUS & Co Research Department Senior Manager Gökhan Uskuay, the world economy in Europe, America and economic developments in Turkey, evaluate opportunities and risks. He noted that the Covid epidemic and pandemic conditions that entered our lives since March 2020 caused the development of the health system by forcing the health system, while the economies caused the countries to strain and contract.
The World Economy is Fragile
Noting that the world is under great risk due to the fact that the number of cases is not decreasing, Uskuay noted that the closed state of the economy can spread until 2022. Pointing out that the recovery process of economies after the pandemic may continue, Uskuay said, “There was a deterioration in financial conditions in the USA until -6. The EU Central Bank faced the same problem. The pandemic has magnified many problems in countries. The world did not have a bright scenario in the last 10 years, the table reached this point with the pandemic process. Although there have been 20 million job losses in the USA, there are still 9 million unemployed people. Consumer confidence reached the lowest level. Central Banks stepped in in this process and saved the world from sinking. The inadequacy of supply chains, depletion of stocks and lack of supply all over the world had an impact on prices. It will not be possible to reach the production point before the pandemic until 2023. In the USA, 1.9 trillion $ incentive package was given to the people living at home during this period. There is such a big savings. We are at a stage where growth and inflation are very fragile. "Inflation targets, output gaps, and the state of closure show that the economy can continue with incentives."
the normalization of developing countries such as Turkey in 2022 to end the find would save FAMOUS & Co Research Department Senior Manager Gökhan Uskuay, Turkey's economy, noting that late in the uncertainty of the last 4-5 years, the emphasis can accommodate a maximum of 4 percent in the new growth. Uskuay said: “2020 was already a year of recovery and we caught the crisis during this recovery. However, there is also that; production in many sectors in Turkey was shut off if the supply chain. shortage in supply chain world countries and Turkey were converting to know the advantages of it. In this respect, the pandemic was an opportunity for us. It was the period when the production capacity was realized as 110 percent and the industrial production reached its highest figure in the last 10 years. However, after the Central Bank discussions and the process, we could not take decisive steps to turn this opportunity into growth and we missed the opportunity. "
Gökhan Uskuay, who also summarized the opportunities and risks, enumerated them and listed them as follows.
Opportunities:
- High global growth with normalization and base year effect,
- Global liquidity and risk appetite will continue as the Central Banks continue their incentives,
- The fact that we are traded with historical low multipliers in our orientation to risky assets and the level of foreign investors at historically low levels,
- Normalization in interest rates as of the last quarter of the year with the decrease in inflation due to the base effect,
Risks:
- The possibility of bubble formation and high volatility in financial assets due to the increase in global liquidity and risk appetite,
- Growth and tourism revenues remain at low levels due to the prolongation of bans due to the pandemic,
- A fluctuating global inflation during the year despite high global growth. In addition to commodity with supply and supply shortages, service and food prices that will increase with normalization,
Stiffness of core inflation and real appreciation of TL will take time within exchange rate transition, slow pace of reverse dollarization
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