Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute are among the leading institutions conducting studies regarding the possible earthquake in Istanbul, especially for the last 20 years.
Director of the Institute Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener and Kandilli Observatory Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring and Evaluation Center Director Dr. Doğan Kalafat shared the latest findings of Kandilli's studies on the Marmara Sea floor since 2013.
Information from the shell
There is no fault line passing under the city in Istanbul, but there is an unbroken fault line passing under the Marmara Sea and about 130 km.
According to the report of Mert Inan from Milliyet, Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener stated that they started the Marmara Seabed Observatory Project with the Japanese 8 years ago and they obtained very comprehensive data from this project, and gave the following information:
“The electric field measuring devices we placed on the sea floor, the opening gauges that determine the crustal deformations on the bottom, as well as the sea floor micro-earthquake measuring devices and the data on seismic observations at the bottom provided us with new information. Initial findings were observed in the segment we call the 'western flank' at 1,5 centimeters per year. In other words, while the North Anatolian Fault Line slides to the west by 2,5 centimeters per year, the fault line (western segment) extending from Tekirdağ-Şarköy offs to Marmara Ereğlisi was determined to have a 1,5 centimeter right lateral slip, and a continuous energy release of 1 centimeter in this segment. This discharge can be interpreted as a lower risk compared to other segments. According to the results of the measurements taken along the fault line (western segment) extending from Tekirdağ-Şarköy offshore to Marmara Ereğlisi, the earthquake risk in this area can be interpreted as lower than the middle segment extending from Silivri-Büyükçekmece openings. "
'The West carries relatively less risk'
Kandilli Observatory Regional Earthquake-Tsunami Monitoring and Evaluation Center Director Dr. Doğan Kalafat stated that the North Anatolian Fault Zone, which passes through the Marmara, is divided into 2 main branches.
“There is not a single fault fragment in the Sea of Marmara. There are many fault segments, but we are examining the main fault segments on the Northern branch. The Northern branch of the fault zone, which passes through the Marmara Sea, is generally composed of 3 main parts as West, Middle and East. Our work in the western and middle segment is about to finish. Data on the eastern segment extending from the starvation of the Istanbul Prince Islands to the Çınarcık-Yalova offshore will be addressed after the pandemic ends. The data show us that energy in the western segment accumulates more slowly and earthquakes in this area occur at deeper. For this reason, it can be interpreted as the potential for earthquake in the western segment carries relatively less risk.
Area where a possible break is expected: Silivri-Kumburgaz-Büyükçekmece
There is a more troubled picture in Middle Marmara. It is accepted by various scientists that the last earthquake in this segment was in 1766. We can say that the risk is higher in an area that has not experienced an earthquake for more than 250 years. According to the data we have obtained so far, middle segment (Silivri-Kumburgaz-Büyükçekmece) gaps where high anomalies are seen. It stands out as the area where a possible break is expected. "
'Its size will be over 7'
Over 450 stations across Turkey's Kandilli Institute gathers data describing the 7/24 Prof. Dr. Haluk Özener stated that taking Istanbul as a whole and preparing an earthquake with urban transformation and even creating transfer areas in certain regions would be correct. Stating that the earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault migrated to the West after the 1939 Erzincan earthquake, Prof. Özener said, “The magnitude of the Marmara Earthquake that will affect Istanbul will be over 7. "This can be a single piece fracture or it can include more than one break."