Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, despite the economic turmoil surrounding Turkey, introduced as a crazy project, which will cost $ 10 billion Channel Istanbul project is going to continue? The “official” response has been uncertain, but in the opinion of economists, he believes that the project, which connects the Black Sea and the Marmara seas as an alternative, is unlimited to postpone.
According to government officials, the Kanal Istanbul Project aims to reduce security risks for Istanbul by redirecting traffic from the Bosphorus strait, and contributing to economic growth. Since the day he opened the project prior to the 2011 general elections, Erdogan has been under fire due to concern for major environmental damage.
According to the plan, before Kanal Kanal then connects the Marmara Sea in Küçükçekmece, it will be an island on the European side of Istanbul, starting from Durusu on the Black Sea coast, 43 kilometers (26.7 miles) long, 100 meters (328 feet) wide and 25 meters (82 feet) in depth.
Those who oppose the project, the channel is only the Black and Marmara seas would not also cause serious damage to the northern Aegean Sea ecosystem, would greet the water resources Istanbul and a major environmental disaster triggered, it argues that 310 million people affected in Turkey.
Speaking on August 18, Erdoğan said, “We will give a big message to the world with Kanal Istanbul. This strategic project will be Turkey's largest investment is definitely going to implement, "he said. In the following days, the outlook of the economic crisis has sharpened and the project will be postponed as part of the austerity measures to the public.
More than two months since then, Erdogan has not mentioned the Kanal Istanbul project again. Nevertheless, Minister of Environment and Urbanization Murat Kurucu said on September 15, the $ 10 billion Istanbul channel project was "ongoing". Given that Erdogan often contradicts his ministers, the Institution's statement should not be seen as binding for Erdogan.
Five days later, the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Berat Albayrak, the son-in-law of Erdogan, launched the "New Economic Program" between 2019 and 2021, in which Channel Istanbul evoked the possibility of shelving. While the program stated, “it has not been awarded yet or has been awarded yet but has not been suspended yet.” Mega infrastructure projects will be realized with international financing. ”
The explanation led to confusion about Kanal Istanbul. The project does not even have a tender report. However, it is also a real “mega infrastructure project Ancak which cannot be realized with altyapı foreign direct investment and international financing Ancak. So in which category is the project falling? Will it be shelved because it has not yet been tendered or will continue international financing?
Yaman Toruner, a former governor of the Central Bank and now a columnist for the Milliyet newspaper near the government, wrote in September that Kanal Istanbul was shelved for three years and did not object to the claims of government officials or pro-government media. .
According to the economic analyst and managing partner Esen Çağlar in the Political Laboratory, an Ankara-based consultancy and thought is the “drop in real prices in the current crisis environment”, the obligation to suspend. “This project is not about a waterway but about land development. This became clear before the 2011 elections. In 2011, as the interest rate is the lowest globally and at a time when Turkey's real estate sector, based on the fundamentals of economic policy. The global crisis decreased and liquidity was abundant. "
As Çağlar promised more profits in less time than the industrial investment of real estate, because the land development in Istanbul has been exhausted, Ankara said, “Something like this would create big construction projects related to its environment”.
Recalling that the project emerged in a construction frenzy, “In the budding years of real estate bubbles, such projects seem logical. But now - how bad will it be from zenith? [Sector] can fall faster than the economy. In July-September period, real estate prices in Istanbul fell by 28% in dollar terms. Looking at the average prices in projects such as Kanal Istanbul, foreign investors will not see that prices have increased as before. Housing prices may continue to drop for a while. Interest rates are very high and there is a risk of not making profits as housing prices fall. It is not against economic logic. "
And what will be the chance of international creditors who finance the project?
Teneo Wolfango Piccoli, London-based Intelligence Coordinator, "In spite of possible loan guarantees from the Turkish treasury, the new mega projects in the country will be a real challenge for Turkey to find international lenders who want to invest money. Already forced - Istanbul's new airport financing that do not have foreign debt - and deteriorating external backdrop for emerging markets and the increasing difficulties faced by Turkey Given the economy, is almost impossible. This would be particularly true for projects such as Kanal Istanbul, which discuss environmental grounds and do not have a clear economic logic. "
Professor of economics at Bilkent University in Ankara Gürkaynak Rafet, the ratio of debt to GDP of foreign lenders came as Turkey, emphasized that despite an unreliable borrower is not high. "This, we see Turkey in January could charge denominated in foreign currencies by 5% interest rate, debt ratio is only 7,5% today can take. The market does not want to lend at lower rates. ”
Gurkaynak will sooner or later put a burden on public finances, claiming that Ankara often lies in the feasibility of infrastructure projects. "If you can't finance a project yourself, you turned to an investor and said," Borrow money and do the job and guarantee income. " Investors' creditors are the same creditors lending to the Turkish state. When you guarantee income, you have to pay them. Your payment commitment needs to be reliable so that the investor can trust and finance the project. Higher interest rates, shows that Turkey has reduced confidence in the ability to pay. Turkey is seen as a risky borrower. The ability of such projects to finance them is highly questionable, whether it is required by the environment, resources or other reasons. "
Despite the economic difficulties, Ankara is not expected to conclude a bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund, especially before the local elections in March. Still, some think he might act after the elections.
What if the government goes to the IMF for the Channel Istanbul project?
“You cannot go to the IMF with such a project. This thing has no economic feasibility. ” "The first thing the IMF will tell you is to support projects based on economically sensible production, not with these things."
Turkey and the IMF is closely following a US-based investment firm's chief economist, Cem Akyurek, "If staying in Turkey to go to the IMF, budget tightening policies demanded by the IMF will be forced to take into account additional loads. From the crisis and public-private partnership projects. When the IMF decides to lend, it begins with the calculation of the debt burden that such projects can place on the treasury. If they continue with Kanal Istanbul, this will put an additional burden on low-income groups, as the IMF is putting pressure on tighter austerity measures. "
Thus, insisting on Channel Istanbul causes political costs along with economic costs.
For Erdoğan, the Kanal Istanbul project is extremely important for its reputation. Although the project is almost completely shelved, it is unlikely to be accepted until the local elections in March, as this would mean the adoption of the economic crisis.
In theory, Erdogan can still realize Kanal Istanbul, but a prerequisite: Finding a banker mad enough to finance his “crazy project”.
Source : I www.egehaber.co
Channel Istanbul Project Introduction Film
Canal Istanbul Last Route
Kanal İstanbul project will start from Yeniköy and follow Sazlıdere Dam and meet Marmara from Küçükçekmece Lake. Channel Istanbul, where rumors about the route have been circulated from language to language for months, was taken into consideration when determining the exact route of the route.
According to the news of Sabah newspaper Nazif KAraman, the Ministry of Environment and Urbanization has prepared the Zoning Plan for the project in this direction. The Ministry also sent the plan to the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and related public institutions for preliminary examination.
The plan is currently being reviewed by IMM Department of Urban Development. The municipality will report to the Ministry as a result of the review. After the Ministry has prepared and signed the final plan, opinions will be received from other municipalities and public institutions. Then, the plan, IMM and district municipalities will be suspended.
History of Channel Istanbul
The history of the alternative waterway project to the Bosphorus goes back to the Roman Empire. The Sakarya River Transport Project was mentioned for the first time in the correspondence between the Governor of Bitinya Plinius and the Emperor Trajan.
The idea of connecting the Black Sea and Marmara with an artificial strait has come up 16 times since the 6th century. One of the three major projects planned by the Ottoman Empire in the mid-1500s was to connect the Sakarya River and Sapanca Lake to the Black Sea and Marmara. It came to the fore in 3 during the reign of Suleiman the Magnificent. Although the two great architects of the period, Mimar Sinan and Nicola Parisi, preparations were started, the realization of this project was canceled due to the wars.
Kanal İstanbul Project Technical Information
Will be implemented on the European side of the city. An artificial waterway will be opened between the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea in order to ease ship traffic in the Bosphorus, which is currently an alternative passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. At the point where the channel meets the Sea of Marmara, one of the two new cities foreseen to be established by 2023 will be established. With this channel, the Bosphorus will be completely closed to tanker traffic and two new peninsulas and a new island will be formed in Istanbul.
- Length 40 – 45 km
- Width (surface): 145 – 150 m
- Width (base): 125 m
- Depth: 25 m
453 million square meters of the New City, which is planned to be established on 30 million square meters, consists of Kanal Istanbul. The other areas are divided into airports with 78 million square meters, Ispartakule and Bahçeşehir with 33 million square meters, roads with 108 million square meters, zoning parcels with 167 million square meters and 37 million square meters are divided into common green areas. The extracted land will be used in the construction of a large airport and port, and will be used to fill quarries and mines. The cost of the project may be over $ 10 billion.
15 January The route of the project has been announced on 2018. It was announced to the public by the Ministry of Transportation that the project will pass through the Küçükçekmece Lake, Sazlısu Dam and Terkos Dam routes.
Dams and Lakes to be Used
According to the plan, the beginning of Channel Istanbul will be adjacent to Istanbul Airport. The most important reason for the Ministry to choose this route is that most of the land located on the canal axis belongs to the treasury and that the Sazlıdere Dam and Küçükçekmece Lake will be utilized at maximum level when the channel is opened.
Excavation work will be carried out in 16 km of the area outside the Sazlıdere Dam and Küçükçekmece Lake. The definitive route of Istanbul's crazy project will be Yeniköy-Sazlıdere Dam-Arnavutköy-Başakşehir-Küçükçekmece Lake. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization asked the municipalities and institutions related to the infrastructure and superstructure projects for the Kanal Istanbul project last April for their approach plans, projects and works for the next 50-100 years. In line with the opinions reached to the Ministry, he made a 1 / 100.000 scale zoning plan. The plan was prepared by the General Directorate of Spatial Planning under the Ministry.
Channel Istanbul - Neighbor to Istanbul Airport
With the plan, new settlements, trade areas, tourism centers and reserve areas to be constructed along the route of Kanal Istanbul and the route were determined. According to the Reconstruction Plan, the Channel will start from Yeniköy in the North and will be adjacent to the 3rd Airport. A luxurious marina will be built at the northern and southern ends of the Canal, which is planned to be 44 km long and 200 meters wide. The most important reason for the Ministry to choose this route is that most of the land located on the channel axis belongs to the treasury. According to the data prepared in the plan, most of the land that the channel passes through is used in agriculture. The project also planned to provide maximum benefit from Sazlıdere Dam and Küçükçekmece Lake. Sazlıdere Dam will be in the canal.
Kucukcekmece Lake, which is given a danger alarm due to pollution, will also take place in the channel. In this way, expropriation costs and other costs will be lower. Another advantage of the route is that there is no forest land on the road. Along the canal there will be dense and low-density housing, commercial areas and tourism centers.
Planned as an alternative to the Bosphorus, the project area will be located within the borders of Avcılar, Küçükçekmece, Başakşehir and Arnavutköy districts. All of the infrastructure and superstructures to be established within the scope of the project will remain within the boundaries of these districts.
According to the completed report, the length of the route of Kanal Istanbul 45 kilometers. The channel will pass through Avcılar, Küçükçekmece, Başakşehir and Arnavutköy districts. The route will start from the intersection that separates the Marmara Sea from the Küçükçekmece Lake and continue along the Sazlıdere Dam Basin. After passing through the village of Sazlıbosna to reach the east of Dursunköy and past the village of Baklalı will reach the Black Sea west of Lake Terkos. 7 km Küçükçekmece, 3 thousand 100 meters Avcılar, 6 thousand 500 meters Başakşehir remaining approximately 29 kilometers will be within the boundaries of Arnavutköy.
Channel Istanbul Cost
The total cost of the project is expected to be 20 billion. Taking into account investments such as bridges and airports, 100 billion USD It is estimated.