How Marmaray will affect the Marmara Earthquake

How Marmaray will affect the Marmara Earthquake: US professor, Marmaray and Kanal explained the earthquake effect of Istanbul. Seismic-geology expert Professor Leonardo Seeber from Lamont-Doherty World Observatory of Columbia University in the USA; He claimed that the Çınarcık fault in the Marmara Sea would create a huge tsunami when it was broken. Seeber, who has been investigating the fault lines under the Marmara Sea since the August 17, 1999 earthquake, answered Hürriyet's questions in New York.
- How did your interest in the fault lines in the Sea of ​​Marmara begin?
After the August 17 earthquake, we immediately went to Adapazarı, Gölcük and started investigations for seismological research. We first looked at how past earthquakes occurred under the Sea of ​​Marmara. With the Turkish-American Marmara Multichannel (OK) team, we have looked at a thousand meters depth and saw what has happened in the last 1 million years. We vacuumed rock and soil fragments from the depths of Marmara with long tubes. We know that there were earthquakes in the region in 1509 and 1766.
- What did you look for at the bottom of Marmara?
We removed the geometry of the fault lines. In particular, we have closely examined the Çınarcık fault. We found that the Çınarcık fault line is only 10 km to the shores of Istanbul. In the past, this line was thought to be 20 km.
- Would it be a disaster if the Çınarcık fault breaks?
We know that the upper part of the Çınarcık fault slides towards Istanbul, and when there is a one-piece break, there will be an important earthquake due to the voltage accumulation and discharge rates. The vertical movement of the 30 km long Çınarcık fault shows that it will create a giant tsunami in case of its upper part breaking. This is a disaster not only for Istanbul but for all Marmara beaches. There is a lot of data about the tsunami in Istanbul's past.
- Can you give a date for the Istanbul earthquake?
It's not my job. However, some researchers predict that 20 will have a major earthquake in the year and that at least 50 will kill thousands of people. Our data shows that this fault will break sooner or later.
- Will Marmaray and the trains passing through trigger the fault line?
Marmaray does not trigger an earthquake. In order to have an effect, it is necessary to move the soil in kilometers wide and hundreds of meters deep. Marmaray is 10 km from the fault line. distance, the depth of the fault is between 15-20 kilometers. Marmaray has no trigger effect on this fault line.
Channel Istanbul has a negative impact?
Kanal Istanbul will surely cause problems. The ecology balance of the Marmara Sea is of course disrupted. But nature always finds its own balance. People and the economy are negatively affected. There are important water reserves in the depths of the region where the canal will be built. Someone should definitely research the possible effects of the channel with scientific techniques. The flow rate of water in the Bosphorus will decrease. The ecosystem of the Bosphorus, even its color changes. There will also be changes in fish species.
Can people trigger an earthquake?
They definitely trigger. If large scale structures and changes are made in the region, this will have a negative impact on the fault line.



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