3. two scenarios for the airport

  1. two scenarios for the airport
    BETAM has prepared two scenarios for the third airport. Accordingly, to keep the target at the airport depends on Turkey's growth performance.

Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (BETAM) Director Prof. Dr. According to Seyfettin Gursel and Research Assistant Tuba Tori staggers the research, to be held in Istanbul 3rd airport depends on the achievement of objectives related to Turkey's growth.

In the tender held on May 3, 25-year operating rights were awarded to 22 billion 152 million euros excluding VAT. kazanWhile the Limak-Kolin-Cengiz-Mapa-Kalyon Joint Venture Group announced that it plans to build the airport in 3 stages, it is stated that the airport, which is expected to be operational in 90 with a passenger capacity of 2019 million in the first stage, will reach 120 million in the second stage and 150 million in the third stage, with the additional runways to be built.

The first scenario is optimistic

BETAM carried out passenger number projections from 2 to 2019 within the framework of 2043 different scenarios regarding economic growth.

According to the first scenario, when the growth is assumed to be 2013 percent for the 2019-5 period, 2020 percent for the 2030-4 period and 2031 percent for the 2043-2 period, the number of passengers is 2019 million for 80, 2020 million in the second half of the 120s, and 2030 in the 150s. estimated at million.

According to the second scenario, where growth rates are considered 4 percent, 3 percent and 1.5 percent in the same periods, the number of passengers will be 2019 million in 68, 90 million will only be reached in the second half of the 2020s, and a capacity of 120 million will be needed only towards the 2050s.

Will lose until the loan debt is over

According to the research, it is estimated that the new airport operation will lose in the 2019-2030 period, that is, until the end of the loan debt period. In the first scenario, the cumulative loss reaches 5.7 billion euros, and in the second scenario where the "low growth assumption is made", it reaches 7.7 billion euros. The airport, which started to make a profit after 2030, made a profit of 2043 billion euros by closing the cumulative loss at the end of 7.3 according to the first scenario, while a total loss of 4.8 billion euros will occur as the cumulative loss is not covered according to the second scenario.

In the study, it was stated that the new airport would have to generate a very good out-of-business revenue over 25 billion euros in the 10 year period in order to make the new airport profitable under the assumption of low growth in the second scenario.

Reduce infrastructure demand

New airport, the center of the 42 kilometers and access to the planned transportation infrastructure is recorded, while the infrastructure project, a failure and / or shortage of the demand for the new airport may be less than the estimated stressed.

Fast train will rival

In the research of BETAM, it was emphasized that the new airport will not have a serious competitor in air transportation, as it will be the only airport in Istanbul's European side if Atatürk Airport is closed as predicted when it starts to operate. Turkey on flights from short and ongoing high-speed train investments being away from the airports to the center (3 hours riding the expectations of the journey at the Istanbul-Ankara line), especially some domestic flights in the indicated his major competitor against air transport research, Istanbul-air transport of passengers in Ankara line It was noted that the airline companies may prefer the train route instead, and this may cause passenger losses on the Istanbul-Ankara line, which has the highest occupancy rate on domestic flights. In the research, it was stated that we should not forget the new highway plans such as the Izmir-Istanbul highway project, and that the highway can be considered as an alternative to the airline in a short distance.

Source : I www.airnewstimes.co

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